There have been a number of occasions in the past year on which Irish and British journalists have reported that the IRA was agreeable to, or even in the process of, decommissioning its weapons.
Around the time of the Belfast Agreement, Dublin Governmental sources apparently told one or two journalists that a senior Provisional IRA figure had given an assurance there would be "token" decommissioning to facilitate the appointment of ministers in Stormont. This, too, appeared, on investigation, to be unfounded.
Expectations of decommissioning were raised following remarks by Padraig Wilson, the Provisional IRA "officer commanding" in the Maze in June that he was "hopeful" that decommissioning would take place.
In mid-July the Daily Express, apparently prompted by British governmental sources, said decommissioning would take place before September when the new Assembly was due to meet.
A mysterious explosion in woods on the Cooley Peninsula, just over the Border in Co Down last month, was portrayed as a sign the Provisional IRA was disposing of explosives by detonating them in a safe location. There was no comment from the Provisionals and, subsequently police on both sides of the Border came to the conclusion that the explosion was more likely caused by dissidents from the "Real IRA" test-firing explosives of the sort that would subsequently be used in the Omagh bombing.
The man charged with overseeing decommissioning - given that it ever takes place - Gen John de Chastelain, actually went as far, in late June, to say he was "hopeful" arms would be handed over. There were various stories about locations being chosen for the disposal of guns and Semtex. The Provisional IRA's public stance on decommissioning, by contrast, has been very straightforward and consistent. It has stated from the outset of the peace process that it will not decommission any of its arms.
"The entire decommissioning issue is a deliberate distraction and stalling tactic by a British government acting in bad faith," the Provisionals said in December, 1995 - two months before the car bomb attack at Canary Wharf, London, which marked the end of its first ceasefire.
On April 29th, 1998, the Provisionals again stated: "Let us make it clear that there will be no decommissioning by the IRA."
Gardai have detected no signs of the Provisionals either preparing for or even contemplating decommissioning. There has similarly been none of the groundwork among rank-and-file supporters by republican leaders which would undoubtedly precede any move in this direction. There have been no pro-decommissioning articles in An Phoblacht and no speeches from "moderate" Sinn Fein figures in support of it.
From the official side, the issue of decommissioning, however, has moved on from the British position of 1994-1995 where it was, effectively, used as a bar by unionists against Sinn Fein's entry into political talks. This condition was dropped by the new Labour government of Mr Blair early in the summer of 1997 and Sinn Fein quickly moved into the political process which led to the Belfast Agreement last Easter.
The agreement continues the position that decommissioning is a voluntary matter for the terrorist organisations whose political wings are party to it. There is now only moral pressure on the terrorist groups to decommission. No terrorist organisation has, to date, surrendered a single bullet. Despite this, the majority of people imprisoned on terrorist-related charges will be freed in the amnesty set up under the agreement.
The latest statement by the Provisional IRA, somewhat worringly, contains language that harks back to the statements from leading Provisional republicans in 1995 prior to the ending of the first ceasefire.
It spoke of "growing concern at the slow pace of movement", a phrase reminiscent of the republicans' continued references to "growing" crises in the peace process as a result of British "delays" in allowing Sinn Fein into the talks process in 1995.
While the spokesman appears to have a generally positive opinion of the Belfast Agreement, he added: "There are others who are trying to slow the pace of progress by resurrecting old preconditions and creating new preconditions in the hope that they can force the governments to renegotiate the agreement with a view to minimising change.
". . . Some people are using the decommissioning issue in support of their own narrow agendas of subverting or securing a renegotiation of the Good Friday document. This should not be allowed to happen.
"The best answer to those who are obstructing the construction of a lasting peace settlement, including those who planted the Omagh bomb, is to move the situation forward speedily and fulfil the existing potential for a resolution of the conflict in an all-Ireland context."
Given the similarities to the language used by the Provisionals in 1995, there may well be growing concerns that there is, in fact, an implied threat here that far from the "war" being over, it remains, in the Provisionals' minds, still a viable option.