Best Picture Escapism rules. The last time a musical won best picture was in 1968, at the height of the Vietnam war, when the award went to Oliver!
Relentlessly driven by the Miramax machine, Chicago seems a certainty, though it's not nearly as cinematically inventive a screen musical as Moulin Rouge or Evita. For the record, the other nominees are The Hours, The Pianist, Gangs of New York, and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. None of the others has a hope.
Should win: The Hours
Will win: Chicago
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, who should have won for Taxi Driver and Raging Bull, is on his fourth nomination with Gangs of New York. Roman Polanski gets his third nod as director for The Pianist. Stephen Daldry makes it two out of two, following his nomination for Billy Elliott with another for his second film, The Hours. First-time nominees are Rob Marshall (Chicago) and Pedro Almodovar (Talk to Her).
Should win: Pedro Almodóvar.
Will win: Rob Marshall.
Best Actor: This is a two-horse race between 12-time nominee Jack Nicholson (About Schmidt) and Daniel Day-Lewis, who won the award for My Left Foot in 1989. The dark horse is Adrien Brody, who, at 29, would be the youngest winner of this award, being a year younger than Richard Dreyfuss when he won for The Goodbye Girl in 1977. The rank outsiders are Nicolas Cage, a former winner for Leaving Las Vegas in 1995, and Michael Caine, who has won the best supporting actor award twice. Go, Daniel, go!
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Meryl Streep deserves the award for her radiant and alert performance in The Hours, yet somehow she missed the cut, perhaps because she decried the whole crazy Oscar promotion hoopla. In her absence, the award ought to go to the marvellous Julianne Moore for Far From Heaven, but it's more likely down to a tussle between two of last year's losing nominees, Nicole Kidman (The Hours) and Renee Zellweger (the weakest link in Chicago). The long-shots are first-time nominees
Diane Lane (Unfaithful) and Salma Hayek (Frida). Kidman will probably win by a (prosthetic) nose.
Should win: Julianne Moore
Will win: Nicole Kidman
Best Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore turns up here again, the only actor with two nominations this year, this time for The Hours. Meryl Streep gets her record-breaking 13th nomination for Adaptation, and Kathy Bates, an Oscar winner for Misery in 1990, is back for About Schmidt. Completing an outstanding shortlist are first-time nominees and Chicago co-stars Queen Latifah and Catherine Zeta-Jones. This is exceedingly difficult to predict, and Streep could shade it.
Should win: Julianne Moore
Will win: Meryl Streep
Best Supporting Actor: Another formidable five nominees, this list is led by Paul Newman in the underrated Road to Perdition. It's the ninth acting nomination for Newman, who received a best actor Oscar for The Color of Money in 1986. Christopher Walken, who deservedly won this award on his first nomination, for The Deer Hunter (1978), is back in contention with Catch Me If You Can. Completing the line-up are Ed Harris, on his fourth nomination for The Hours, and two fine character actors on their first nominations, Chris Cooper (Adaptation) and the ubiquitous John C. Reilly (Chicago).
This is very close. Expect a Chris to win.
Should win: Paul Newman
Will win: Christopher Walken
Best Original Screenplay: Unusually, two foreign-language movies are in the final five - Almodóvar's Talk to Her and Carlos and Alfonso Cuaron's Y Tu Mama Tambien. Gangs of New York doesn't stand a chance. The front-runners are Nia Vardalos for My Big Fat Greek Wedding, which has been more than amply rewarded at the box-office, and Todd Haynes for Far From Heaven, which should find its major Oscar reward here.
Should win: Far From Heaven
Will win: Far From Heaven
Best Adapted Screenplay: The outsiders here are About a Boy and The Pianist. Chicago will win only if it's really on a roll, and the award is more likely down to Charlie Kaufman for his very clever work on Adaptation and David Hare for his masterly adaptation of The Hours.
Should win: The Hours
Will win: The Hours
Best Foreign Language Film: This category yields more wild cards than all others. The Dutch entry, Zus and Zo has only history on its side - all three former Dutch nominees went on to win the award. Zhang Yimou's Hero is only the second Chinese nomination in this category, following Zhang's Ju Dou in 1990. Aki Kaurismaki's fine Finnish film, The Man Without a Past, is probably too idiosyncratic for the voters, which leaves the controversial Mexican movie, The Crime of Father Amaro and the German entry, Nowhere in Africa, one of which should scrape it.
Should win: The Man Without a Past
Will win: Nowhere in Africa
Best Original Music Score: At 80, composer Elmer Bernstein is this year's oldest Oscar nominee, and he hasn't won since his first nomination, for Thoroughly Modern Millie in 1967. His strongest opposition comes from Philip Glass for The Hours, which isn't all that original a score. The other nominees are Thomas Newman (Road to Perdition), John Williams (Catch Me If You Can) and Eliot Goldenthal (Frida).
Should win: Far From Heaven
Will win: Far From Heaven
Best Original Song: Eminem was the early favourite here for Lose Yourself from 8 Mile - until he announced that he will be on holiday and can't be bothered to turn up and perform his song. Colin Farrell will introduce U2 performing The Hands That Built America, which faces its keenest competition from John Kander and Fred Ebb's I Move On, the only new song in Chicago. Also nominated are Paul Simon (Father and Daughter, from The Wild Thornberrys Movie)
and Eliot Goldenthal and
Julie Taymor (Burn It Blue from Frida).
Should win: The Hands That Built America
Will win: The Hands That Built America
In other categories Chicago should add to its Oscar booty by taking the awards for costume design, film editing and sound.
The Two Towers is likely to win for visual effects and sound editing, while Gangs of New York should take best art direction, Ice Age the award for best animated feature film, and Frida the Oscar for best make-up.
Expect a polemical speech from Michael Moore when he wins best documentary for Bowling For Columbine
And there should be a sustained standing ovation when a posthumous Oscar for best cinematography is announced for the late Conrad L. Hall for his painterly work on Road to Perdition.
TV coverage of the Oscars ceremony begins on BBC 1 at 12.50 a.m. on Monday. Edited highlights will be screened by Network 2 at 9.30 p.m. on Monday. See www.oscar.com