RISKY BUSINESS: In a wide-open contest Michael Dwyer picks his major contenders.
BEST PICTURE
There are only two certainties: A Beautiful Mind and The Fellowship of the Ring. Ridley Scott's riveting war movie, Black Hawk Down, set in 1993 Mogadishu, is the film most likely to benefit from the new mood of patriotism in the US. That leaves two places on the shortlist, one of which deserves to be filled by In the Bedroom, a low-budget perfectly judged, beautifully acted and deeply involving drama of bereavement from actor-turned-director Todd Field.
The final place is most likely between Amélie and the exuberant musical, Moulin Rouge, although there is no shortage of other contenders: Gosford Park, The Royal Tenenbaums, Shrek, Ali, The Shipping News, the vastly overrated Mulholland Drive and the shamefully underrated AI: Artificial Intelligence.
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Prediction: A Beautiful Mind, Black Hawk Down, The Fellowship of the Ring, In the Bedroom, Moulin Rouge
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BEST DIRECTOR
The prime contenders are the same as those for best picture, with the addition of the gifted young British writer-director, Christopher Nolan, for the fascinating Memento, which surely is too complex to secure a best picture nomination. Nevertheless, a screenplay Oscar may well have to prove Nolan's reward on Oscar night. Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind), Peter Jackson (The Fellowship of the Ring) and Baz Luhrmann (Moulin Rouge) should all be assured of collecting their first best director Oscar nominations. A two-time nominee (for Thelma & Louise and Gladiator), Ridley Scott is likely to be back on the list with Black Hawk Down.
That leaves a battle royal for the fifth place, with the front-runners being 76-year-old Robert Altman, who has never won an Oscar, (Gosford Park), Steven Spielberg (A.I.), Todd Field (In the Bedroom), Jean-Pierre Jeunet (Amélie) and dark horse Christopher Nolan.
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Prediction: Robert Altman, Ron Howard, Peter Jackson, Baz Luhrmann, Ridley Scott
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BEST ACTOR
In the 73-year history of the Oscars, only six black men and women have won acting awards. This year, however, two black men look very likely for best actor nominations - Denzel Washington, powerfully cast against type to play a corrupt LAPD detective in Training Day, and Will Smith as Muhammad Ali in Ali, despite the critical reservations that movie has generated. And Russell Crowe, is certain to pick up his third consecutive nomination for A Beautiful Mind. The final two places may go to two-time winner Gene Hackman for his wonderfully deadpan irresponsible paterfamilias in The Royal Tenenbaums, and Yorkshire actor Tom Wilkinson for his distraught father in In the Bedroom.
Playing a mentally disabled man seeking custody of his daughter in I Am Sam, Sean Penn is a contender, as are Kevin Kline as a dying architect in Life As a House, the underestimated Guy Pearce for Memento, two-time winner Kevin Spacey for The Shipping News,
Ewan McGregor who is at least as deserving as Nicole Kidman for Moulin Rouge, and Billy Bob Thornton, if his vote doesn't split between Monster's Ball and The Man Who Wasn't There.
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Prediction: Russell Crowe, Gene Hackman, Will Smith, Denzel Washington, Tom Wilkinson
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BEST ACTRESS
In an unusually good year for roles for women, this category is highly competitive. Sissy Spacek, an Oscar winner for Coal Miner's Daughter in 1980, is certain to be on the shortlist for In the Bedroom, as is Oscar darling Judi Dench - who has been nominated three times in the past four years and won once - for her moving portrayal of the older Iris Murdoch in Iris. Deglamorised as a widow involved with her husband's executioner in Monster's Ball, Halle Berry is a strong prospect, as are Tilda Swinton (The Deep End), Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones's Diary), Stockard Channing (The Business of Strangers), relative newcomers Audrey Tautou (Amélie) and Naomi Watts (Mulholland Drive), and Nicole Kidman, whose vote will be split between The Others and Moulin Rouge. This will be a very close call, with Kidman (for Moulin Rouge) and Zellweger possibly scraping in ahead of Tautou and Channing.
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Prediction: Halle Berry, Judi Dench, Nicole Kidman, Sissy Spacek, Renee Zellweger
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
There are three formidable performances from the ensemble cast of Gosford Park: Emily Watson, two-time Oscar winner Maggie Smith, and Helen Mirren, who's also a candidate for Last Orders. And two former Oscar winners in The Royal Tenenbaums - Anjelica Huston and Gwyneth Paltrow. Jennifer Connelly, from A Beautiful Mind, is sure to be on the list, as is Kate Winslet for Iris, while Cameron Diaz could get in for Vanilla Sky. Judi Dench could score agin here for The Shipping News, as could Cate Blanchett. And then there are former winners Marisa Tomei (In the Bedroom), Frances McDormand (The Man Who Wasn't There) and Julie Andrews (The Princess Diaries). Clearly, Irish actress Fionnula Flanagan (The Others) has her work cut out, but this result could fall in so many different directions.
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Prediction: Jennifer Connelly, Cameron Diaz, Maggie Smith, Marisa Tomei, Kate Winslet
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Golden Globe winner Jim Broadbent is a sure-shot for Iris, although he should be in the best actor category, and would had Miramax not positioned here for a better result. An Oscar winner for Gandhi, Ben Kingsley has the "Denzel Factor" going for his psychopathic gangster in Sexy Beast, and the incredibly hard-working Steve Buscemi finally should get Oscar recognition for the lonely guy he plays so effectively in Ghost World. That leaves two places and about a dozen serious contenders, of which the strongest probably are Jon Voight (Ali), Tony Shalhoub (The Man Who Wasn't There), Ian McKellen (Fellowhsip of the Ring), Jude Law (AI), 80-year-old Carl Reiner (Ocean's Eleven) and 20-year-old Hayden Christensen (Life As a House). And all those fine Last Orders actors - Michael Caine, Bob Hoskins, Tom Courtenay, David Hemmings and Ray Winstone.
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Prediction: Jim Broadbent, Steve Buscemi, Hayden Christensen, Ben Kingsley, Tony Shalhoub
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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A record entry this year, with more than 50 movies entered by their countires of origin, and some surprise omissions already in that process - Monsoon Wedding passed over by India, Y Tu Mama Tambien by Mexico, and Kandahar by Iran. Miramax has the US rights to five of the entries - Amélie (France), Italian For Beginners (Denmark), Baran (Iran), Behind the Sun (Brazil) and Nanni Moeretti's unforgettable The Son's Room (Italy), which won the Palme d'Or at Cannes last year. At least one film which will insure that there isn't a clear sweep by Miramax is the Bosnian war satire, No Man's Land, which took the Golden Globe last month. The other front-runners appear to be Lagaan (India), Das Experiment (Germany), Elling (Norway), Dark Blue World (Czech Republic), Atanarjuat, The Fast Runner (Canada), Our Lady of the Assassins (Colombia) - and Quo Vadis (Poland), which carries the prayers of the Pope, who attended its world première in the Vatican last year. This category always yields surprises.
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Prediction: Amélie, Italian For Beginners, No Man's Land, Our Lady of the Assassins, The Son's Room
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The nominations are announced on Tuesday and the 74th Academy Awards take place in Hollywood on March 24th.