Gilmore believes that Labour has strong jobs policy and that his party can win 50 seats at the next general election, writes HARRY McGEEPolitical Correspondent
A CHUNKY ream of paper is slammed onto the table making a loud “thunk” noise. The person who has slammed the documents is Labour leader Eamon Gilmore. The action has not been done in anger. It’s more a dramatic visual response to a charge that clearly irks him: that Labour’s strategy is all bluster and no muster.
“There are 45 policy documents there,” declares Gilmore pointing at the impressive stack.
Over the past two years, he has demonstrated a mastery of instant indignation in Dáil and media performances. It has captured some of the zeitgeist and has contributed to the quantum leap in support for the party.
But latterly, he has faced accusations that his anger is not matched by substance, rather a cynical touting of the populist line every time. They cite his refusal to voice an opinion during the ballot on the Croke Park deal; the party’s apparent U-turn on stag hunting and the accusation that the Labour Party is a hurler on the ditch with no real policies of its own.
“The ‘no policy’ attack is a Fianna Fáil attack. It’s inevitable that they will have a go at a party which is increasing support. It is simply is not true,” is his response.
He says 45 policy proposals amounts to an impressive haul for three years, in addition to 35 Private Members’ Bills, a figure to match the Government’s. To misquote Orwell, some of the policy documents are more equal than others. That said, some are substantial and fully costed.
He first of all deals with the charge that Labour has no proper jobs strategy. He says the two major planks of jobs policy is a new strategic investment bank and a jobs fund of over €1 billion.
The bank’s initial capital, he said, would be €2 billion from the National Pension Reserve Fund, which he claims could in turn raise up to €20 billion in private investment.
He outlines its three main functions: to provide credit for small and medium enterprises; to support innovative new ventures; to providing finance for “shovel-ready” capital schemes such as schools, retrofitting and energy-fitting.
The jobs plan, he says, would fund graduate placements, early intervention and training. Its €1.15 billion would be funded from extra revenues and savings identified by the party last December in its pre-budget document.
Has he, like the Government and Fine Gael, totted up the jobs potential of the party’s policies? No, he says. “I’m not sure that it’s possible to do that. It makes for headlines, so many jobs,” he replies. He adds that the energy document identified 80,000 and the tourism policy said it could retain the 120,000 jobs in that sector.
But the party’s two main rivals have put a number on it and both have been pounded for it. Aspirational they might be, but at least they have done it?
“I take the point. It is always a bit hazardous when you are putting numbers on jobs that you might create,” he replies.
He is far more bullish with figures when talking about his own party’s prospects. He says the opinion polls suggest that Labour will make gains in places where it had no foothold before.
“For example in Connaught-Ulster, you see that Labour is at 19 per cent or 20 per cent, as against 5 per cent in the last general election.” When he became leader in 2007, he said he wanted the number of Labour TDs after the next election “approaching 30”. Has he upped that ambition now, to approaching 40? “I’m saying our strategy is to win enough seats to become the largest party in the Dáil and to lead the next government,” he declares.
In all, he hopes to run 65 candidates. But to become the largest party, Labour would have to win 50 seats plus. Is that not unrealistic?
“I think it’s very doable. It’s very much an election about change. There’s a serious hunger for change in the country.”
He outlines that his party’s ambitious gains to some 50 seats will eclipse even those of Dick Spring in 1992.
“If you think about it, opinion polls are such that Labour would win a seat in every constituency. That’s 43 for a start. There are constituencies where we are stronger and where we can win more than one.
“If you look at Dublin and constituencies in commuter belt and Cork and main urban centres we will be looking for more than one.”
Going through them one by one, he predicts gains in all constituencies including unlikely ones like Donegal North East; Cork North West; Laois-Offaly; and Limerick West.
Does that not leave open the possibility that if Labour wins more seats than Fianna Fáil, they could enter a coalition with him as taoiseach? He rules that out completely.
“We have made it clear all along that our intention is to get Fianna Fáil out of government in the next election,” he says.
So he would rather serve as tánaiste with Fine Gael than as taoiseach with Fianna Fáil?
“I want to be absolutely clear,” he replies. “I don’t want there to be any ambiguity about this. Fianna Fáil must be put out of government at the next election.”
He rejects the notion Labour has been damaged over his refusal to state a position on the Croke Park deal and of sitting on the fence so as not alienate public sector workers, a vital constituency for his party.
“I said I was not going to interfere in the ballot. That was the right decision to make,” he responds, before saying turning it into a political football would have been inappropriate.
But did people accept that? Was it not running with the hare and chasing with the hounds? “No, that was the Fianna Fáil message. They hit us with that,” he replies.
On his party’s decision to vote against a ban on stag hunting, he defends the decision on the basis it was brought forward to provide a “trophy “for the Greens.
“Therefore it was essentially a political issue. Labour’s political priority it to put an end to this Government. If they bring forward a Bill that’s more about politics than anything else, we will respond in kind.” But did it not mean ditching a principle? “There was no principle ditched,” he retorts before saying that Michael D Higgins had dealt with this issue effectively in the 1990s.
“Even with a change of government, dealing with public finances responsibly will be a priority for alternative government.”
He says the party’s approach will be different from the Government’s. How different? He won’t say now, and will not until after the October exchequer figures are published.
For now, he does not favour a property tax and has ruled out water charges because of the high cost of supplying meters.
He points to ending property reliefs and pension reliefs – proposals unveiled before the last budget – which might net €1 billion. He also points to some reductions in capital budget, some yet to be identified savings or “efficiencies” and some as yet unspecified revenue-raising measures.
“I do not think that anybody is in a position at this point in time to say the exact amount of any of the individual components,” he says.