IRAQ: In today's constitutional referendum, Nineveh province has been considered the key swing constituency of Iraq.
But as some Sunni Arab leaders in Baghdad gave a last-minute endorsement to the constitution this week, local politicians from the Iraqi Islamic Party scrapped their "No" posters and began organising "Yes" rallies on the streets of the provincial capital.
Many voters in Nineveh say they have been swayed by the political turnaround, making it seem increasingly unlikely that the constitution will be rejected, even in this predominantly Sunni Arab province.
The constitution needs the approval of a majority of Iraqis, but can be defeated if at least two-thirds of the voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote no.
Sunnis have led the opposition to the constitution, and voters in the provinces of Anbar and Salahadin are most likely to reject it, making Nineveh's vote crucial.
On Wednesday, Iraqi leaders amended the charter to make it more palatable to Sunnis, and the Iraqi Islamic Party endorsed it.
While some of the drama of today's vote is gone, tension remains. A series of high-profile suicide attacks has claimed the lives of at least 60 people this week.
The province has become a high-stakes battleground between US-led forces intent on securing high voter participation, and insurgents conducting a campaign of violence against the referendum.
Intimidation, assassinations and a history of voting fraud have polluted political life in Mosul. Election workers, high-level politicians and journalists have been slain.
Last week, the Kurdish-dominated provincial government voted to oust the Sunni Arab police chief, accusing him of heavy-handed tactics and corruption.
Officials in Baghdad and Washington fear that threats and ballot-box stuffing might jeopardise the credibility of the vote in Iraq's third-largest city. "If they can't get along here," said Maj Jeff Houston of the 401st Civil Affairs Battalion, "it creates serious problems for the rest of the country."
About 1.8 million of Nineveh's 2.5 million inhabitants live in Mosul. Sunni Arabs dominate on the west bank of the Tigris river and Kurds on the east. The complexity of the city's ethnic and sectarian allegiances still makes the vote hard to call here.
"It is not a foregone conclusion," said a US official, adding that "if the Sunni Arabs are less antagonistic as a result of the developments in Baghdad, it makes it all the less likely that the constitution will fail."
A staff member at the Development and Dialogue Association predicted that the Iraqi Islamic Party endorsement would affect the vote of Sunni Arabs in the city.
News of it had been "a political bomb," he said. His predecessor had been killed recently, he said, and so he preferred not to be identified.
On Thursday, as the news filtered through Mosul, several people said they had been persuaded to vote yes.
"I made my final decision based on the amendments made lately that made the constitution more objective," said Yossef Mossab, a college professor. "The position of the Islamic Party gave us more courage to say yes to the constitution."
Omar Doboii (30), a lawyer, also said he would mark his ballot yes.
"The decision of the Islamic Party did have an impact on me and I think affects most people in Mosul," he said. The party has "influence inside our hearts, so if they say yes, we will say yes."
Even if opponents of the constitution cannot defeat it, a large vote against it could make it seem less legitimate to Iraqis. - (LA Times-Washington Post service)