Paisley should have the numbers to do deal

You wouldn't sense it and you wouldn't hear it out on the streets - although you'd see it with the posters - but today's Assembly…

You wouldn't sense it and you wouldn't hear it out on the streets - although you'd see it with the posters - but today's Assembly elections are big, critical and vital in terms of the future of Northern Ireland as a locally, politically governable state.

For years Northern politicians have failed to disprove the barbed accuracy of Charles Haughey's description of Northern Ireland as a failed political entity. Now they are to be given another opportunity.

Apathy is a serious factor in this election but behind the public ennui and despite people's perfectly understandable aversion to perpetual political process, deep down they should know this is an important election.

In any case at gut level it's tribalism that gets people out, particularly west of the Bann, and that will hardly change. A total of 1,107,904 people are entitled to vote, and at least 650,000 of them should exercise that franchise.

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For the first time, notwithstanding the uncertainty as to whether Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness can sit in government together, there is a real prospect of a powersharing government involving the main parties.

Furthermore, unless the anti-St Andrews Agreement unionist candidates led by Robert McCartney of the UK Unionist Party inflict unpredicted damage to the DUP, then Dr Paisley should have the numbers to strike an agreement with his bitterest foe, Gerry Adams, should he be so minded.

And behind all the electoral posturing the impression remains that Dr Paisley is up for a deal and that even some of the sceptical so-called DUP Twelve Apostles, such as MPs Nigel Dodds and Gregory Campbell, are gradually moderating their positions. And that's because the canvass message ringing in the ears of DUP and most other candidates is this: get on with it.

That said, the likes of MP William McCrea and MEP Jim Allister should remain implacable in their opposition to Sinn Féin being anywhere near the seat of government. So, March 26th will be a difficult choice for Dr Paisley, and he will make enemies whichever way he goes. The impression is that some unionists won't forgive him if he goes into Stormont with Martin McGuinness but many, many more won't forgive him if he doesn't.

To be able to deal he wants a strong mandate, and that means encroaching further into the UUP vote, and smiting the opposition posed by Mr McCartney.

On the nationalist side Sinn Féin is also seeking a solid mandate. It must put paid to the challenge from republican dissident candidates and maintain its position ahead of the SDLP.

On the bread and butter issues such as water charges, rates, health and education it's difficult to cite any major differences between the DUP and UUP, and between the SDLP and Sinn Féin. Even on constitutional matters there is little difference: Sinn Féin and the DUP want a united Ireland, the unionist parties want to maintain the union. Boiled down it's what politics is mostly about: a power struggle, within unionism and within nationalism and, of course, Orange versus Green.

So, there are two key nationalist and unionist battlegrounds as well as the wildcards as to whether Alliance has a future, and whether some of the Independent candidates or minor parties can puncture the grand ambitions of the big players.

UNIONIST BATTLEGROUND

Steadily and inexorably the DUP has gained supremacy over the once-dominant Ulster Unionist Party. Look back to the 1998 Assembly elections when the UUP won 28 seats to the DUP's 20 seats.

Five years later in the last Assembly poll the tide had turned, the DUP winning 30 seats, the UUP in second place with 27. Even by the British general election of 2001 the DUP was also eating into the UUP vote - six seats for the UUP to five for the DUP. By 2005 it was almost a wipeout for the UUP at Westminster, the DUP gaining nine seats, Lady (Sylvia) Hermon the lonely Ulster Unionist representative.

With defections and Paul Berry's resignation the Transitional Assembly ceased to function in January, with the DUP holding 32 seats to 24 for the UUP. Unless us political pundits are misreading the public mood the DUP should significantly increase that representation. On a perfect day the DUP could win 39 seats, although 36 or 37 would seem more likely.

Whichever, it would be sufficient for Dr Paisley to do business, without making him and his party a new unionist monolith.

On a most imperfect day the UUP could see its seat numbers drop to 20, or even slightly below that. Yet, the UUP just might surprise itself by remaining a force, albeit a further marginally weakened one, within unionism. The UUP has a reasonable chance of just dropping one or two seats, which would be a good result for leader Sir Reg Empey. Its vote must come out though.

NATIONALIST BATTLEGROUND

What the DUP did to the UUP was not quite replicated on the nationalist side, although Sinn Féin is the ascendant voice over the SDLP in nationalism. In 1998 the SDLP had 24 Assembly seats, Sinn Féin 18. By 2003 that position was exactly reversed, 24 for Sinn Féin, 18 to the SDLP.

By Westminster 2001 Sinn Féin had four MPs to three for the SDLP. Four years later, when there was talk of SDLP meltdown, it was five MPs for Sinn Féin, but still three for the SDLP.

On a bad day the SDLP might only take 16 seats. But equally it has chances of winning up to 21, three ahead of 2003, and a reasonable chance of taking 19, which could include a Sinn Féin scalp in Newry and Armagh. That would be very good for the SDLP.

On a very good day Sinn Féin could win 28 seats, although a more realistic forecast would appear to be 25 or 26.

So, while the gap between the DUP and the UUP should be considerable - 13 seats or more - there should be less daylight between the two main nationalist opponents, with ministries for all four main parties if the deal is done.

MIDDLE GROUND

Alliance is fighting for its survival and that of its leader David Ford. The word is out to voters from unionist parties in difficult constituencies such as Mr Ford's South Antrim and Kieran McCarthy's Strangford that after voting unionist they should transfer to Alliance. Those transfers will determine whether Alliance can keep in range of its current six or be diminished to two or three.

WILDCARD

UKUP leader Robert McCartney, standing in six constituencies and fielding 13 candidates altogether, including the six versions of himself, hopes that he and other anti-deal unionist candidates will win enough votes to demonstrate that unionists oppose powersharing with Sinn Féin. His view doesn't seem to reflect the mood on the ground, but his overall vote will be carefully watched.

Another wildcard: can Independent Paul Berry hurt his old mentor, Ian Paisley, by holding his former DUP seat from the DUP in Newry and Armagh? Republican Sinn Féin and other dissident republican candidates also hope to damage Sinn Féin.

An advertisement in yesterday's Irish News signed by over 300 "Irish republican ex-POWs against the RUC/PSNI and MI5" urging support for dissident candidates illustrates that there is disaffection out there. Again though, like the "dissident unionists", they don't appear to be tuned into the Northern zeitgeist.

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty

Gerry Moriarty is the former Northern editor of The Irish Times