Pakistan and the world hold their breath

The world is holding its breath as the possibility of a US strike on Afghanistan draws precariously nearer

The world is holding its breath as the possibility of a US strike on Afghanistan draws precariously nearer. As talk of war resounds, much of the focus is on Afghanistan's neighbour, Pakistan, where the military government has been left between a rock and a hard place following last Tuesday's attacks on New York and Washington.

America is demanding Pakistan's help, "whatever might be required", in its determination to wipe out the number one suspect for the atrocities, Osama bin Laden, the Taliban's Muslim "guest" in war-torn Afghanistan.

If it decides on an air strike, the US will have to fly fighter aircraft through Pakistani air space. If ground troops are to be deployed, access to Pakistan will be essential.

But the intense, anti-American emotions stirred in Pakistan in the wake of the terrorist attack half a world away, has left the Pakistan military leadership with a huge dilemma.

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Bin Laden is a hero among many Muslims in Pakistan, which is one of only three countries (along with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia) which recognises the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. Pakistan, which is going through its own economic woes and which is ruled by a military dictatorship does not want to become piggy in the middle of a conflict between the US and Afghanistan.

The choices are limited. The military government, led by Gen Perez Musharraf, can co-operate with the US in the hunt for bin Laden and any possible military action against Afghanistan, thereby avoiding international isolation or it can move to placate influential Islamic groups at home and stave off domestic upheaval.

Pakistan is a society with a strict personality. The majority of its 140 million people are poor, devout Muslims, with little hope of bettering their lives and little faith in their political rulers. They have increasingly turned to Islam and to identifying with suffering Muslims in other countries which they regard as being victimised by Israel and the West.

Then there is a minority of more educated, religiously moderate Pakistanis who see improved economic and political ties with Western powers as essential. They fear that if Pakistan is tarred with the Islamic extremist label, it will risk economic collapse, international isolation and a bleak future.

Until now the clash between these two Pakistans have not been tested. The government of Gen Musharaff, who seized power in October 1999, has tried to balance seeking credibility among Western governments and the Islamic community at home.

According to the professor of defence studies at Quaid-I-Azam university in Islamabad, Mr Rifaat Hussain, this is a defining moment for Pakistan.

"Do we swim with the current of world opinion against terrorists or do we condemn ourselves to being on the wrong side of history? There is really no choice, but it will be a very difficult one for Musharaff to handle," he told the Washington Post.

The government's dilemma is intertwined with Pakistan's troubled history.

It was aligned with the US against Russia, which occupied Afghanistan for a decade. The US spent millions arming the Islamic guerillas who eventually drove the Soviet army from Afghanistan in 1989. Ironically during the period Osama Bin Laden, now American public enemy number one, was on the same side as the US fighting the Afghan cause.

Once the Soviets withdrew, US money dried up and Afghanistan was left to slip into violent civil conflict. Meanwhile Pakistan was left to cope with the growing influence of militant Islamic movements initially nurtured with US dollars.

The Taliban emerged out of this volatile situation in 1994. They advocated an "Islamic revolution" in Afghanistan and took control of the capital Kabul in 1996. It now controls 95 per cent of Afghanistan and harbours bin Laden as a "Muslim guest".

The Taliban has imposed a tough system of government and justice based on Islamic laws. It has been condemned by the West and sanctioned by the UN Security Council for sheltering bin Laden and violating human rights.

Many Pakistanis who have little love for the Taliban or bin Laden, viewing both as a threat to Pakistan's stability at home and credibility abroad, have said in recent days they understand why some Pakistanis and Muslims found grim satisfaction in the attacks on America's symbols of power.

An Islamabad businessman told The Irish Times that generally people did not favour what happened in the US but an American attack on bin Laden and Afghanistan would hurt too many people.

In the bustling "Karachi Company" bazaar in Islamabad G District, there was only talk from the mainly Afghan community there of their hero, bin Laden, and little sympathy for America. Nineteen-year-old Hamid left Kabul with his parents and three sisters when he was 10, when the fighting got too bad. "If America strikes Afghanistan it is finished. It will never get back to my homeland," he said, adding there was no proof that bin Laden was behind last week's attacks.

The Pakistani military is pragmatic and knows the country faces economic ruin if it does not stand with the US on this issue. But there are forces that need pacifying. Yesterday Gen Musharaff made private contacts with the heads of various religious organisations, including some militant outfits, trying to meet a middle ground. He also announced he was sending a delegation to Kabul to talk with the Taliban leaders.

Meanwhile, weary residents of Afghanistan, already battered by various wars in the last 23 years, await the next move from the US. Thousands have made their way over the weekend to the Pakistani border seeking refuge. Many thousands more are living in appalling conditions in refugee camps in north-west Pakistan having fled civil strife.

The UN fears massive population displacement in the country, saying there are almost 6 million vulnerable people there representing 25 per cent of the population.

Strategists face their own dilemma as they contemplate their strike on Afghanistan. They have to decide what to destroy when so much already has been desecrated by war. Their main target, bin Laden, and his followers have fled their hideouts in the hills.

In neighbouring Pakistan yesterday, security remained tight with troops stationed at airports and foreign diplomatic missions. Most foreign aid workers have now left Afghanistan and all expatriate petroleum company employees flew out of Pakistan over the weekend.

In the midst of fearsome talk of war, 100 white-robed men, women and children gathered in the Pakistani capital yesterday to make a simple statement of peace. The members of the Pakistan aid organisation, the EDHI International Foundation, stood in quiet reflection carrying banners with pictures of doves proclaiming the words love and peace.

Meanwhile as America decides its next move, Pakistan continues the agonising waiting game.