FOR once the two main political parties agree. Today's Staffordshire South East by election will be the "most important of this parliament" as the predicted Labour victory will reduce the British government's majority to just one.
Not surprisingly, the Tories are unwilling to lose this prosperous constituency without a fight. After all, it is the birth place of modern Conservatism as launched by Sir Robert Peel in 1834. The ensuing battle of tactics has reduced this by election to an uncivilised and aggressive scrum, with accusations of "dirty tricks" from both sides.
Staffordshire South East is not natural Labour territory. A prosperous area, it appears to have weathered the recession better than much of the country with owner occupations of homes higher than the national average while unemployment is lower.
If Mr Blair's "New Labour" cannot conquer seats like this and the rest of "Middle" England then Britain is set for its fifth term of Conservative rule. A Labour defeat will also dampen Mr Blair's whirlwind trip to America.
However, Labour is confident of overturning the late Sir David Lightbrown's 7,192 majority, eagerly pointing out the government's four month delay in announcing the polling date as a sign of their acute nervousness over the outcome.
Even the local paper, the Birmingham Post, which is a staunch critic of the Labour controlled council, predicted this week that the Conservatives were "staring defeat in the face in the by election as surely as they face annihilation at a general election".
But privately, Tory officials believe a Labour majority of 3,000 to 5,000 could be interpreted as the first sign that the anti government feeling in the country is receding.
The Conservatives have mounted an aggressive campaign which, to the surprise of many, has clearly unsettled Labour and put its candidate, Mr Brian Jenkins, on the defensive.
"I have been the butt of negative campaigning from day one but I have not complained," insists Mr Jenkins, who has had been accused in numerous Tory posters daubed around the constituency of being arrogant and refusing to listen to people.
As if to prove he means business, the Tory candidate, Mr Jimmy James, a former army major, has draped his election headquarters with posters inspiring his loyal troops to "go out and kill the Labour Party."
Mr Alan Duncan, the parliamentary aide to the Tory Party chairman who has masterminded this campaign, believes it has worked and should be adopted in the future.
"This time the mood is different. Labour have got into bad habits, they are totally negative. For the first time that negativism has been tackled head on and they are rattled," he says.
The Tories have deliberately concentrated on local issues, despite leaving their candidate open to attack for not being a local man, and have protected him from full scale press conferences hoping to spare both Mr James and any visiting ministers the ordeal of trying to answer awkward questions.
During a "spontaneous" walkabout at a local shopping centre, the Chancellor, Kenneth Clarke, easily dodged questions on Europe and the single currency but still managed to predict that "Jimmy James should be the first beneficiary of the growing feel good factor".
Much to the annoyance of her colleagues, the Liberal Democrat candidate, Jennette Davy, has appeared to urge her supporters to vote Labour by stating she was prepared to "pay the price" of defeat if a Labour victory brought forward the date of a general election.
British eccentricity is well represented in the contest, with a further 10 candidates hoping to dent Mr Blair's dreams. Among them is one who believes he is a rabbit and a pensioner representing the "Daily Loonylugs Earring - Up the World" party.