The voters of South Tipperary won't quite know what's hit them. A constituency which believes it has been neglected by successive governments is about to be love-bombed by Cabinet Ministers, party leaders, members of various front benches and even the Taoiseach.
All will be canvassing over the next three weeks in a by-election campaign which has four serious contenders and is set to be vigorously contested. The participants agree on one thing: the result is too close to call.
If there is a favourite, it is the Labour candidate, Ms Ellen Ferris, who will be seeking to win the seat held by her husband, Mr Michael Ferris, until his sudden death in March.
To do it, however, she will need a considerable improvement on the 16 per cent of the vote which Mr Ferris secured in the general election of 1997, when he was pushed hard for the third seat by Clonmel-based Independent Mr Seamus Healy.
Mr Healy, whose Workers and Unemployed Action Group holds four of the 12 seats on Clonmel Corporation, is in the race again and has been encouraged by an internal Fianna Fail poll which predicted that he or Ms Ferris is likely to win the seat.
Fianna Fail sources, however, say that poll did not take proper account of the likely destination of transfers. That's a factor which is uppermost on the Fianna Fail strategists' minds.
The party's candidate, newly-elected county councillor Mr Barry O'Brien, is likely to top the poll. But he will need a substantial number of second- and third-preference votes to get elected. Going after such votes has not been a Fianna Fail strength in the past, but party activists say this has changed under the leadership of Bertie Ahern.
The fourth candidate with realistic prospects is Fine Gael Senator, Tom Hayes, who will need a substantial swing towards his party if is to make it. As a sitting member of the Oireachtas, however, he has a high profile and may have a geographical advantage as the most centrally-based candidate.
If, as expected, the Labour Party moves the writ for the election today, the parties will officially launch their campaigns tomorrow and Friday. Polling day is likely to be June 22nd or 23rd.
While there is no shortage of local issues, the election is seen as the first major test of public opinion in the light of the latest revelations from the Flood and Moriarty tribunals and recent controversies such as the appointment of Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank.
Mr Healy, in particular, is determined to make "sleaze and corruption" a central issue in the campaign and has called for all ministers who were part of a Haughey-led cabinet to "bow out of public life".
There were also many references to Mr Haughey and his legacy at last week's Fine Gael selection convention. The party acknowledges, though, that if there is disillusionment over recent revelations, voter apathy is the most likely result. "People are concerned about sleaze in politics and if they want to change politics they certainly need to come out and vote," says Mr Hayes, a farmer from Golden.
Mr O'Brien, a 40-year-old businessman who surprised many by winning the Fianna Fail selection convention on Friday, does not expect to have to pay for the sins of others in the past. "It [sleaze] will be brought up as an issue by other candidates but I don't see it as a major issue."
He was happy with the way the matter was being handled by his party and his own views were clear, he added. "Anybody from any party found guilty of wrongdoing should face the full rigours of the law."
Like most apparent overnight successes, Mr O'Brien, who was elected to South Tipperary County Council for the first time, has a long track record in Fianna Fail, having joined his local cumann at the age of 12.
Ms Ferris is not new to politics either. She worked full time as her husband's constituency secretary for the past 10 years, so she knows what the job entails. "A lot of people want to have a TD they know where to find and who's there when they need them. I'm out of work now so I'm available. If elected, I'd look forward to the challenge."
Her nomination was due to be confirmed at a selection convention in Tipperary town last night. Making the decision to run so soon after her husband's death was a difficult one, she said, but holding the Labour seat was "so important" to him and she believed she had the best chance of doing that.
Mr Healy believes if he can get ahead of Ms Ferris on the first count he'll take the seat. His problem may be over-dependence on support from Clonmel, but the Workers and Unemployed Action Group broadened its base in last year's local elections and now has a seat on Carrick-on-Suir UDC. It also has two, albeit Clonmel-based, seats on South Tipperary County Council.
Mr O'Brien should head the poll but will need those transfers. Labour hopes Ms Ferris will finish a strong second and secure enough cross-party preference votes to see her home. Fine Gael got 24 per cent of the vote in 1997; Mr Hayes says he needs 30 per cent this time and will give it "as good a shot as anyone".
While sleaze will be a factor, local issues are likely to dominate, including the lack of a decentralised Government department or agency in the constituency, high unemployment in Tipperary town and Carrick-on-Suir, and the difficulties facing farmers in an area still highly dependent on agriculture.
