A review of the Belfast Agreement could continue beyond Easter, writesDan Keenan.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Northern Secretary will jointly chair the first session of the Belfast Agreement review at Stormont tomorrow.
Mr Cowen and Mr Paul Murphy, together with the parties represented in the suspended assembly, will formally examine the working of the agreement with a view to "fine-tuning" arrangements after nearly six years of stop-go operation.
However, both governments know that the parties send representatives to the table amid political chaos with wildly differing ambitions for the review.
Tomorrow's inaugural session at Stormont will see both ministers make opening speeches about the purpose and course of the review. They will then invite the leaders of the party delegations to do the same. All the parties are expected to be there, including the DUP fresh from its meeting with the Taoiseach last week, and Sinn Féin. There is no allowance for debate.
That done, the review will adjourn for the day and reassemble the following day and on most Mondays and Tuesdays until Easter at least.
A trusted British source has indicated that the review will examine the Belfast Agreement along the lines of its formation. This will mean that Strand One, dealing with "internal" Northern Ireland arrangements; Strand Two, dealing with all-Ireland structures; and Strand Three, dealing with British-Irish relations, will be dealt with. Junior ministers from both governments may well chair meetings on the various strands.
Although envisaged under legislation as a relatively low-key examination of the agreement's operation after five years, this review could play a pivotal role in the two governments' attempts to restart the political process.
However, the opposing agendas of the participants could prove difficult to accommodate.
The DUP approaches the table flushed with the successes of the November elections and the defection of key Ulster Unionist figures. There are suggestions of competition within the party between the "old-fashioned unionism" of the Rev Ian Paisley and the ambition of some MPs and assembly members.
One report yesterday floated the possibility that the party, implacably opposed to a return to the power-sharing executive with Sinn Féin, could stomach a return to devolution with structures weighted more in terms of the assembly rather than an inclusive executive.
Last week's significant meeting with Mr Ahern at the Irish Embassy in London showed that, by wanting the IRA to go out of business, both sides have a significant policy overlap.
The Ulster Unionist Party, on the other hand, continues with its civil war which rumbles on despite the departure of Mr David Trimble's key opponent, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson.
Understating matters perhaps, Mr Trimble told the BBC at the weekend: "There's still some dust to settle, but the dust will settle over the course of the next month or so. Then I think we have a huge opportunity ... for the party to put the division of the past behind."
That dust was kicked up by the departing hordes who have headed for the UUP's doors following Mr Donaldson's dramatic defection. With the party's youth wing, branches and constituency associations rocked by resignations following the disappointing November poll results, Mr Trimble approaches the review with severe problems ahead of his a.g.m. in March at which he must submit his name for re-election.
With a cumbersome and unhelpful party rule book (which itself is said to be in need of review), and deep unease about "concessions" made to repub-licans, these are yet more tough weeks for Mr Trimble.
The shock of being relegated to opposition on the unionist benches behind a resurgent DUP may take time to ease. So, expect more talk from leading unionists of the party on the verge of imploding.
On the nationalist side, the SDLP is also coming to terms with being eclipsed at the polls by a strident Sinn Féin electoral machine. With Mr Mark Durkan having a bruising time at his first election as leader, he may well have considered quitting, as was rumoured.
Now, not unlike the UUP, the SDLP is struggling with the new political reality. Its organisation showed gaping holes last November and the shortage of active as opposed to card-carrying members was telling.
It draws its chairs to the review table warning the governments not to go soft on the founding principles of the agreement despite the pressure to do precisely that from the DUP which campaigned - and won - on a promise of "a fair deal" for unionism.
The SDLP wants the review to concentrate on core issues, namely, as Mr Seán Farren said yesterday, "whether unionist politicians are willing to work the institutions of the agreement and whether all paramilitaries - loyalist and republican - will end all their activity".
Sinn Féin, in this 10th anniversary year of the IRA's landmark ceasefire, will give that statement two cheers.
Vigorously critical of the governments' role so far, it wants both Mr Ahern and Mr Tony Blair to push ahead and implement the agreement. Not to do so is handing the unionists an effective veto, it argues.
Worried that unionists could try to stall things, republicans want a short review - a month at most. The governments are allowing for twice that, and probably more, although they insist the process will be "focused".
This review begins with many wondering why, after nearly six years since referendums North and South endorsed the great consensus agreement between the two political traditions, the last election rewarded the so-called "extreme" parties. Certainly the more middle-ground SDLP and UUP have suffered. But there can be little doubt that both the DUP and Sinn Féin are moderating - and it is to be expected that that process still has a way to go. This review could point the way.