Defending champions Italy are unlikely to cut a bella figura this time, writes Paddy Agnew
FOR MUCH of the last two years, there has been a sense of déjà vu in Italian football. It reminds one of the build-up to the 1986 World Cup finals in Mexico when Italy, then as now, travelled to the competition as the reigning World Champions.
Frankly, not many Italians expected Enzo Bearzot’s 1982 winners to repeat the trick four years later. As Italy shape up for South Africa, there is the same sense of resignation in the air. National expectations are not so much high as focused on Italy putting up an acceptable if not necessarily bella “figura”.
The reasons for this are all too obvious. For a start, 60 million Italians know only too well just how difficult, if not to say almost impossible, it is to win back to back World Cups. Only Brazil (1958 and 1962) have managed it in modern times. Italy, of course, did it themselves in 1934 and 1938 but that was very much another era.
On top of that, as Irish fans know only too well, Italy were less than awesome in their qualifying group, making the most of all the breaks that went their way, especially in away games against Cyprus, Georgia and Ireland. Until recently, one was tempted to add a third negative consideration about Italy, namely that coach Marcello Lippi would rely too heavily on his “Dad’s Army” of Berlin 2006 heroes to defend the trophy.
Lippi has proved less hidebound than might have been expected, however, and Italy go to South Africa with, at most, just nine survivors from four years ago. Gone are household names such as Del Piero, Grosso, Toni, Totti and Nesta replaced by players such as Genoa defenders Domenico Criscito and Salvatore Bocchetti as well as Juventus midfielder Claudio Marchisio.
For all that, though, there will still be a very familiar look to the Italian line-up. Players such as Gigi Buffon in goal, Fabio Cannavaro in defence, Daniele De Rossi and Andrea Pirlo in midfield and Alberto Gilardino in attack all played key roles in the triumph in Germany four years ago. Furthermore, with the exception of 36-year-old captain Cannavaro, all the Berlin heroes are, in theory at least, still at the very height of their game.
And there’s the rub. No one doubts the quality of the above-named but many people wonder if, four years later and with a lot more miles on the clock, they can find the stimulation and motivation, not to mention the physical stamina necessary to win a World Cup.
Lippi, too, has taken cognizance of Serie A form, eliminating four Juventus players (Amauri, Candreva, Grosso and Legrottaglie) from his plans in the wake of a disastrous season for the club. Ironically, too, the outstanding good news of the Italian season, namely Inter Milan’s Champions League triumph, affords Lippi no comfort since Inter fielded not a single Italian in the final against Bayern Munich.
For much of the last two years since he returned to take over Italy, Lippi has “talked the talk”, expressing his firm belief both in this squad and in Italy’s own excellent World Cup record (the Italians have won it four times). Yet, one suspects that his major concern in South Africa will be to limit the damages.
If the draw was unfailingly kind to Italy four years ago, it looks very similar this time. With all due respect, New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia should offer the Italians a relatively uncomplicated passage to the second round. After that, it will be a surprise if Italy go beyond the quarter-finals.
Italy play their first game in Cape Town on June 16th against a Paraguay side whose preparations for the tournament were hardly helped when their leading goal scorer in qualification, Salvador Cabanas, was shot in the head in a bar in Mexico City last January. The absence of Cabanas, who was released from hospital at the end of May with the bullet still in his head, is clearly a huge blow.
Paraguay’s qualifying record in the huge Latin America group speaks for itself – 10 wins, 3 draws and five defeats in 18 qualifiers. With a game that is based on a dour defence, and with Manchester City’s Roque Santa Cruz replacing Cabanas up front, however, Paraguay are unlikely to charm neutrals.
If Paraguay fail to make it to the second round, that might be because of Slovakia. Inspired by talented Napoli midfielder Marek Hamsik, Slovakia pulled off one of the biggest surprises of qualification winning a group which saw 2006 finalists the Czech Republic and Poland eliminated.
As for the fourth team, the “All Whites” New Zealand, they look the weakest side in the group, destined for an early exit. Mind you, worth recalling that when they played Italy in a friendly last year, they made the World Champions work very hard for a 4-3 victory.
Our call on Group F
1st: Italy
2nd: Slovakia