CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: The return of the Connacht-Ulster MEP, Pat "The Cope" Gallagher, to Donegal South West means Fianna Fáil is practically assured of regaining the seat it lost in 1997 to the Independent, Tom Gildea.
Mr Gildea's subsequent decision not to stand only confirmed expectations that the outcome will be two seats for Fianna Fáil and one for Fine Gael, in a return to the status quo before the Independent's surprise victory.
It seems the only question left is whether the sitting Fine Gael TD, Dinny McGinley, will hold on to his seat or risk losing it to his running-mate, the hotelier Jim White, who was the party's TD in the constituency for a decade up to the early 1980s.
Fianna Fáil has strong candidates in Pat "The Cope", a former Minister of State, who despite being elected twice to Europe is renowned for keeping close to people on the ground, and the current Minister of State for the Arts, Heritage, Gaeltacht and the Islands, Ms Mary Coughlan.
Shortly after her appointment, Dinny McGinley was also promoted to the Fine Gael front bench to mark her, and he has highlighted the problem of a succession of factory closures and lay-offs in the Donegal Gaeltacht, particularly in his home area of Gweedore.
While there is much local anger over the issue, the two Fianna Fáil candidates have little reason to be concerned. A TG4/MRBI opinion poll, carried out in February before Tom Gildea withdrew, found Gallagher topping the poll at 31 per cent, followed by Mary Coughlan on 24 per cent.
However, even Fianna Fáil people admit that a 55 per cent share of the vote for the party is probably overstated. In 1997 Fianna Fáil got 38 per cent, but even before the departure of Pat "The Cope" for Europe, the party's share did not reach 50 per cent.
The poll found Dinny McGinley taking 12 per cent as opposed to 9 per cent for Jim White, but few are writing off White at this stage. He also contested the seat in 1992 and on that occasion came in neck-and-neck with McGinley on first preferences, but lost out on transfers.
It is expected that McGinley, having been in the seat for so long, will again do best on transfers. The TG4 poll confirmed this, finding that after Coughlan the next major beneficiary of Gallagher's surplus was McGinley.
Coming from west Donegal, McGinley is also likely to benefit most from eliminations of people like Seamus Rodgers of Labour and Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin, who are both from the same area.
White is from Ballyshannon and now owns more than a dozen hotels around the country, two in Donegal town. Being a large employer in the area should help his chances.
Unlike the Fianna Fáil candidates, who have divided the constituency between them, the Fine Gael pair will be fighting it out on a free-for-all basis.
The TG4 poll predicted that Tom Gildea would get just 5 per cent of the vote, and few expect his long-time personal assistant, Gwen Breslin, who is standing in his place, to pose a serious challenge. Sinn Féin is putting up two candidates, Pearse Doherty and Tom Dignam, who polled 6 and 3 per cent respectively in the TG4 poll. The party, which currently has no councillors in Donegal, is thought at this stage to be more focused on building support to take council seats, while at the same time having high hopes for 24-year-old Doherty.
Other candidates include Thomas Pringle, a Killybegs-based Independent and county councillor, who got 4 per cent in the TG4 poll, and Joe Kelly of Independent Fianna Fáil, who is contesting his first election and is the son of the current chairman of Donegal County Council. The TG4 poll found Independent Fianna Fáil on 3 per cent and Labour down from 4 per cent to 3 per cent.
Prediction: FF2, FG1. FF gain from Ind.
1997: FF 38.04%;FG22.97%; Lab 4.20%; GP 4.21%; Others 30.58%
Outgoing TDs: Mary Coughlan (FF); Dinny McGinley (FG); Thomas Gildea (Ind).