Election preparations: Fine Gael's leading election strategist has said that appeals to the party's voters by the new Progressive Democrats leader Michael McDowell will not succeed.
"The reason the PDs gave the last time to people to vote for them was to prevent Fianna Fáil from getting a majority. That argument was appealing then to some Fine Gael people," said Frank Flannery, the party's director of elections.
In Sligo at the end of the Fine Gael parliamentary party's two-day gathering yesterday, he said: "The reason now is to give Fianna Fáil power for another five years. That argument won't wash with Fine Gael supporters this time.
"They are in danger of fighting the last election, not the next one. Their arguments about 'slump coalition' won't work. We have done research and people find it hysterical."
The opinion polls put Fianna Fáil on an average of 34 per cent, which would mean, if replicated on polling day, that the party would lose four seats, down to 61 from 65.
"One puts them at 35 per cent, the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll puts them on 31 per cent. But, remember, this far out from the 2002 election Fianna Fáil were on 51 per cent," Mr Flannery said.
"The last Irish Marketing Surveys/Irish Independent poll before the last election had them on 51 per cent. They finished on 41 per cent. I am assuming that they will get 37 per cent," he said.
He believed Fine Gael would get between 29 and 30 per cent: "That means 56 to 60 seats. In 1997, with 28 per cent of the vote, we got 54 seats, so that is a reasonable estimate."
He added: "It is not true to say that Fine Gael gains will have to be at the expense of Labour . . . They are being under-estimated. They have seat opportunities in Dublin South, Dublin Mid-West, Tipperary South, Meath East, Dublin South Central and Tipperary North - though in the last one we will both be fighting for the seat," said Mr Flannery.
Asked about Labour leader Pat Rabbitte's address to Fine Gael TDs and Senators on Monday, Mr Flannery rejected suggestions it would raise fears that Labour would be too dominant in a Fine Gael/Labour administration.
"I didn't read Pat Rabbitte's speech in that way at all. He said that there has to be a definable element of Labour Party policies in the next government. He did not say that it had to be a Labour government," he said.
Mr Rabbitte's decision to come before the Fine Gael parliamentary party, which will be followed by Mr Kenny's appearance before Labour next week in Cork, was a display of confidence, he said.
"It has not been done before. They are trying to signal the relatively deep nature of the relationship between the parties. It isn't just pragmatic."
Mr Flannery added that Fine Gael and Labour would produce agreed policies on health, the economy and crime before the election took place.
"We will be legitimately putting a proposition to voters that the Government is not in a position to do," said Mr Flannery.
Nine months to plan for FG/Labour birth: page 16
