THREE months ago the Progressive Democrats were languishing at 6 per cent in an Irish Times/ MRBI opinion poll. And Mary Harney's brave boast that they could win 15 seats in the next general election was dismissed as hyperbole.
These latest figures will, however, soften a few political coughs.
For the first time in recent years, the party has overtaken Labour in the political pecking order and it enjoys a slight advantage of 1 per cent. Its recent annual conference has revitalised the party in Munster and in Connacht/Ulster, while support has also grown in Leinster and in Dublin.
The volatility of the electorate has affected all parties, especially in the Dublin region. And the huge electoral overhang - 20 per cent - of undecided voters would suggest that the jury is still out concerning the composition of the next government. What indications there are, however, point to the emergence of a Fianna Fail Progressive Democrats coalition in 1997.
Last week's opinion poll was conducted in an atmosphere dominated by the Michael Lowry affair and by allegations of large donations being made by Dunnes Stores to a former Fianna Fail minister, to public officials and to political parties.
The only mainstream Dail party (the Greens got no money) untouched by Dunnes Stores donations was the Progressive Democrats. And Ms Harney and her colleagues led the Dail charge in demanding full disclosure of all relevant financial details through the appointment of an official inspector or by way of a sworn public inquiry.
It was the kind of message an outraged public wanted to hear. Mary Harney's personal satisfaction rating hit 71 per cent. Support for her party almost doubled, from 6 to 11 per cent across the State, and in all regions. As a snapshot in time, the findings reflected public sentiment, but it will take at least one more opinion poll to judge whether it is a trend.
The good news for the party will, be tempered by a realisation that a shortage of high quality candidates could undermine its election prospects, as it did in the 1992 general election. Back then, the party scored 8 per cent in opinion polls but this was reduced to 5 per cent because of the limited number of seats it contested.
Labour appears to have taken the brunt of the electorate's anger. There was widespread public dissatisfaction over John Bruton's handling of the Lowry affair, but Labour dropped three points to Fine Gael's one. Three quarters of those questioned and 80 per cent of Labour's own supporters believed the Government had been damaged.
The fact that support for Labour dropped from 13 to 10 per cent, in tandem with a four point fall in the Government's satisfaction rating, would appear to link public dissatisfaction with its response to the controversy. This is reflected in a sharp drop in middle class support, particularly on Dublin's southside.
Since last September, support for Labour on the southside fell from 15 to 10 per cent but it gained on the northside - at Fianna Fail and Fine Gael's expense - to secure a current rating of 22 per cent.
The volatility reflected in the Dublin figures is staggering. For some reason, Fianna Fail's support on the northside dropped steeply from 52 to 40 per cent, even though support for the strong ethical position adopted by Bertie Ahern increased his satisfaction rating by six points, to 58 per cent.
By contrast, voters south of the Liffey rallied to Fianna Fail, where it added 10 points to its September total of 29 per cent.
Although Fine Gael's vote held up remarkably well across the State, it suffered heavily in Dublin. North of the Liffey, its vote fell from 22 to 9 per cent, while the decline on the southside was four points, to 22 per cent.
Largely because of their aggression in seeking the disclosure of all relevant facts underlying the Dunnes Stores controversy, the Progressive Democrats' slice of the middle class vote has doubled, from 8 to 16 per cent within three months.
It may yet prove to be a flash in the pan. But it should provide a salutary lesson for politicians. Given that kind of volatility within the electorate, which is particularly marked in Dublin, all parties will have to look to their ethics in preparation for next year's general election.