PD PARTY CONFERENCE: Mary Harney will scotch leadership rumours, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
In February 2002 the Progressive Democrats gathered in Limerick facing a general election campaign amid speculation that their days in power were numbered.
Tonight nearly 900 of the party's membership will congregate in Galway with eight TDs, a renewed term of office and confidence that the road ahead could be brighter still.
But there is the far-from-insignificant matter of the party leadership to be cleared up first. For months there has been speculation that Ms Mary Harney could step down before the next election.
The possible options for her have been many and varied: a complete departure from politics, perhaps; or a move to Brussels to become Ireland's next European commissioner.
Tonight Ms Harney is expected, according to some sources, to depart from a prepared script to scotch this rumour once and for all and to make it clear that the lady is not for moving.
In the meantime, the Progressive Democrats are glowing that so many inside the Fianna Fáil Parliamentary Party believe they have undue influence on the Government.
The image is exactly the one the party wishes to present to the public, particularly given Michael McDowell's "One-Party Government? No, Thanks" election campaign.
So far complaints about the economy's performance, especially the views of some voters that they were lied to before the election, have been directed at Fianna Fáil more than the PDs.
The last Market Research Bureau/Irish Times opinion poll found that the Government's satisfaction rating had plummeted since last May's election.
Voters unhappy with the Coalition now outnumber those satisfied with it by two to one. Just 31 per cent are happy, compared to 61 per cent before the election.
However, Fianna Fáil has been taking most of the flak. The party's poll rating is down four points to 32 per cent, while the core figure is even worse, down five points to 29 per cent.
The Progressive Democrats' niche role in politics has offered protection. Its rating increased to 6 per cent, up one; while its core figure stands at 4 per cent, the same result it achieved in May.
The desire of some of the party's constituency organisations for major rules changes, particularly about future leadership votes, will not be met in Galway this weekend.
The Dublin South East organisation has suggested that the rulebook be amended so that the next leader would be elected by all party members, rather than by the Parliamentary Party.
Such a rule change would favour Mr McDowell, who, perhaps not coincidentally, represents Dublin South East, since he strikes a chord with the rank-and-file like no other figure within the party.
Such matters, however, will be deferred until a special delegate conference later in the year to allow time for a full review of the party's rules, said the party's general secretary, Mr John Higgins.
"The rules were drawn up at a different time to now. To deal with just one rule in isolation would be foolhardy," he told The Irish Times yesterday.
Like every other party, the Progressive Democrats are already looking forward to next year's local elections, the breeding ground for new Dáil candidates.
Currently, the party has 32 representatives sitting on city, council, urban district and town councils, including a number of Oireachtas members who will have to stand down.
Despite their public perception as an urban, middle-class party, the Progressive Democrats are keen to spread their roots elsewhere throughout the country.
"For instance, we have people from Kerry challenging for places on the party's general council. That would have been quite unusual in the past," said Mr Higgins.
The party could have up to 200 candidates contesting the local elections, compared to just 81 in 1999.
