THE long delay in implementing the Belfast Agreement has clearly generated doubt and uncertainty among voters in the Republic. The latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll has come up with some striking figures in that regard.
Asked how they would vote in a referendum at this time on the agreement, including the changes to Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution, 69 per cent said Yes, 9 per cent No, and there were 23 per cent Don't Knows. The Yes figure is lower than the 71.12 per cent vote which the agreement secured in Northern Ireland on referendum day last June, and lower still than the 94.39 per cent endorsement of the agreement in the Republic. No doubt, by the time the Don't Knows in this week's poll eventually made up their minds, there would be a higher percentage support for the agreement in the Republic than the referendum day figure in the North. However, this result is still a cause for some concern to supporters of the Good Friday pact and will be a source of comfort to dissidents in both the republican and unionist camps.
The survey was carried out by MRBI for The Irish Times last Tuesday and Wednesday. The poll covered 1,000 people, representative of the Republic's 2.5 million electors, at 100 sampling-points throughout the 41 constituencies.
The highest level of doubt and scepticism is found in the younger age-groups, with 27 per cent Don't Knows among those between 18 and 24 years and 26 per cent in the 25-34 category. This contrasts with 19 per cent Don't Knows in the 35-49 age-group while 22 per cent of respondents aged 50 and over are undecided.
At 20 per cent, the level of doubt in both Fine Gael and Labour is exactly twice as high as among Fianna Fail supporters. Interestingly, there is a much higher degree of scepticism among female respondents, at 31 per cent, compared with 14 per cent of the males surveyed.
Although the survey does not inquire into the causes of this relative shift in opinion on the agreement, the delay in establishing the new executive is the first that comes to mind. There may also be doubt as to how eager the unionists really are to form a government that would include Sinn Fein.
The suggestion that Garda Jerry McCabe's killers could be eligible for early release may also have raised doubts about the terms of the Belfast Agreement among people who had not read the "small print" before.
There is a hint of the "a plague on both your houses" attitude in the response to the question: "Who is more to blame for the delay in implementing the agreement, the Ulster Unionists or Sinn Fein?" Since Sinn Fein has been getting most of the blame in the media and public discourse generally, the party will derive some slight comfort from the fact that 16 per cent of respondents are more inclined to blame the UUP, compared with 14 per cent who believe Sinn Fein is most at fault. However, a much larger total of 59 per cent believe both parties are equally responsible.
Among Fianna Fail voters, 18 per cent place most blame on the UUP compared with 13 per cent who blame Sinn Fein. The picture is reversed among Fine Gael voters, 21 per cent of whom point the finger at Sinn Fein compared with 15 per cent who say the unionists are most to blame.
Voters were asked if they believed a government could function in Northern Ireland without decommissioning of paramilitary weapons. Opinion was almost evenly divided, with 45 per cent asserting it was not possible and 39 per cent believing it was.
On a wider scale, it may be that the decline in the Taoiseach's personal rating from 81 to 70 per cent can be attributed in part to the sluggish rate of progress in Northern Ireland.
A rather worrying picture, then, for the pro-agreement forces among governments, parties and in the two communities in Northern Ireland. If the present impasse continues, the next poll in the Republic is likely to show an even higher level of doubt over the agreement.