Perception of Hume victory may see low voter turnout

Derry or Londonderry - that is the question

Derry or Londonderry - that is the question. Former US President Bill Clinton so elegantly yet unsuccessfully tried to circumvent it during a recent visit by referring to "Derry in Co Londonderry".

Yet Foyle, the name of the constituency, possibly is an indicator of the conciliatory spirit prevalent in the North's second largest city - to avoid offending either community the Boundary Commission named the seat after the river which divides it.

When Clinton flies into town for yet another visit this week he will be greeted not only by Derry's sitting MP and effectively "First Citizen", Mr John Hume, but also by the city's first Sinn Fein mayor, Mr Cathal Crumley. Off the record, even Derry's unionist councillors admit that Mr Crumley's behaviour during his 12 months in office has been "impeccable". "Sure, you can't tell the difference between the Shinners and the SDLP any more anyway," one was recently overheard mumbling in the guildhall's corridors.

While neither party will take that as a compliment, Mr Hume says his party's "consistent philosophy of partnership" has led to a kind of "team spirit" which also includes the unionist parties and has allowed Derry politicians to focus on "real politics" - housing, unemployment, inward investment.

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Grass-roots supporters in Creggan and the Bogside might not like it but Sinn Fein is very much part of the political establishment in the city. Its election candidate, Sinn Fein chairman Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, has jokingly been described as the party's "draft dodger" because of his non-militant past.

Whether Mr McLaughlin can make inroads into Mr Hume's overwhelming majority remains to be seen. In the 1997 Westminster elections the SDLP leader out-polled his Sinn Fein rival by two to one, winning 25,109 votes, over 52 per cent of all votes cast, compared to Mr McLaughlin's 11,455 votes (almost 24 per cent). The DUP's Mr William Hay, as the only unionist candidate standing, received just over 10,000 votes.

In the 1998 Assembly elections, the SDLP's share of the vote was just under 48 per cent, while Sinn Fein won 26 per cent, the DUP 12.5 per cent and the UUP almost 10 per cent.

Mr Hume's seemingly certain victory might result in a low turnout in Foyle. According to one of the city's political commentators and activists, Mr Eamonn McCann, there is "hardly an air of wild excitement in the streets of the Bogside".

Things will no doubt get a lot more interesting once the SDLP leader decides to retire from British parliamentary politics as he had already been rumoured to do at this election following his withdrawal from the Assembly last year.

In Foyle, Mr Hume, who is also an MEP, is tipped to be succeeded by the Assembly's Finance Minister and fellow Derry man, Mr Mark Durkan.

As for the unionist camp, the UUP will not give the DUP a clear run this time, fielding its own candidate, Mr Andrew Davidson.

It is difficult to predict how badly this will affect the electoral fortunes of the DUP candidate, Mr William Hay, who has up to now been able to count on a solid base of support in the Protestant Waterside of the city.