Pessimism as Ahern, Blair visit North

Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair arrive in Belfast to meet the Northern parties this afternoon against growing pessimism about the…

Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair arrive in Belfast to meet the Northern parties this afternoon against growing pessimism about the prospects of a deal to restore devolution being achieved by their deadline of November 24th.

The Taoiseach warned yesterday that if the parties did not seize this opportunity to restore the Northern Executive and Assembly then the next chance to reinstate devolution could be "light years" away.

Mr Ahern and the British prime minister will exhort the main parties, the DUP and Sinn Féin, to agree to power-sharing by November while also reinforcing their insistence that they will end Assembly members' pay and allowances if there is no deal.

Mr Ahern told UTV's political editor Ken Reid yesterday evening that if the parties couldn't find agreement more than three years after the Assembly was suspended and after three years of "sustained" attempts to restore Stormont, then "we are not likely to see [ a deal] in this decade".

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While there are still almost five months to November 24th, senior Dublin, DUP and Sinn Féin sources privately acknowledge that there is no indication whatever that DUP leader the Rev Ian Paisley would agree to go into government with Sinn Féin by then.

"There are two racing certainties," a senior DUP figure told The Irish Times. "There will be no devolution on November 25th and there will be no pay for Assembly members on the same date."

He said, however, that there was still a real possibility that even with Stormont shut down in November, further talks could result in a power-sharing deal by late spring or early summer next year. By then, however, the Taoiseach and Government are likely to be facing an imminent general election, while Mr Blair could be preparing to stand down as prime minister.

"We have an opportunity, probably the last opportunity in a long, long time, certainly the last opportunity that I will be engaged in in the foreseeable future," said Mr Ahern.

"I think if we fail on setting up the Executive now it's gone for light years away."

Despite the general pessimism he urged Northern politicians to find an accommodation.

He said, "We have a number of months to do this, and for the sake of good sanity for the people of Northern Ireland and the people of this island generally and for the people of the totality of the United Kingdom let's after a decade of progress - and 8½ years-plus since the Good Friday agreement - let's just complete the mission in the next few months, and let's not create a difficult situation that there is no necessity to do."

Senior Sinn Féin members met in Dundalk yesterday to begin a review into whether the party should continue in the limited Assembly after the summer recess in September.

Party president Gerry Adams and chief negotiator Martin McGuinness have demanded in recent days that if the DUP will not strike a deal, the governments must press ahead with Plan B: implementing all other elements of the Belfast Agreement aside from devolution.

SDLP leader Mark Durkan, reflecting the current negativity, accused the DUP and Sinn Féin of seeking to adopt positions where each could blame the other for the failure to find agreement in November.

Ulster Unionist MEP Jim Nicholson described the DUP and Sinn Féin as the "problem parties" who were blocking the opportunity for local politicians to run Northern Ireland.