Differences within the Medical Council over its ethical guidelines on abortion may force the postponement of a referendum during the lifetime of this Government.
A Government source said that while the possibility of a referendum in the autumn was being actively investigated, the controversy within the council over what constituted ethical practice could influence the outcome.
A Cabinet sub-committee consisting of the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, the Minister for Health, Mr Martin, the Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, and the Minister of State, Ms Liz O'Donnell, has been considering an Oireachtas committee report on the issue since last November.
Following recent discussions between the Taoiseach and the chairman of the Pro-Life Campaign, Mr Des Hanafin, the idea of an autumn referendum was given fresh impetus.
Mr Martin was instructed to investigate the possibility of reaching agreement on a package with anti-abortion and medical groups. Those talks are expected to take place shortly.
The Government had considered basing legislation on the original Medical Council guidelines, which stated: "The deliberate and intentional destruction of the unborn child is professional misconduct." How ever, those were recently amended to allow for abortion where there was a real and substantive risk to the life of the mother or where the foetus was not viable.
Court action was threatened within the council to reverse those decisions, which could embrace the Supreme Court decision in the X case. A meeting to deal with ethical issues has been scheduled for September.
The Government's preferred approach would reject the Supreme Court ruling in the X case, which allowed for abortion where there was a risk to the life of the mother through suicide.
A Government source said the time-span in which a referendum could be held was narrowing rapidly. The Government would not hold one in 2002 ahead of a general election, and if there was one this year, it would have to be in October.
To meet such a timetable, the Fianna Fail source said, the Cabinet would have to make all the necessary preparations, including decisions on legislation and wording, before the end of July. That would allow the Dail to pass the legislation when it returned from holiday in early September and to prepare for a referendum in October.
No final decision had been taken on the matter by the Government, he said, but it had not been ruled out. He was reluctant to accept the view that passing of a referendum on abortion would improve the chances of the Nice Treaty being adopted when it was again put to the people.
A spokesman for the Progressive Democrats said it would be difficult to come up with legislative proposals before the Cabinet wrapped up for the summer. The situation was complicated because of disagreements within the Medical Council on ethical issues which, he said, did not appear to be "anywhere near a resolution".