Zimbabwe's opposition has warned that a coup will exacerbate, not resolve, the country's growing political and economic crisis following revelations that senior military officers have warned South Africa they may overthrow Mr Robert Mugabe.
Mr Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, said the history of coups in Africa was disastrous and rarely laid the ground for legitimate governments.
"Coups are not the answers to our problems," he said. "Once a country sets itself on a course of coups, it is difficult to re-establish a healthy democracy. If this report that the army is planning a coup is serious, then the army must be discouraged from doing that. Political change must come in a constitutional manner, through free and transparent elections."
Mr Tsvangirai's warning came after high level sources in Pretoria told the Guardian that senior army officers in Zimbabwe had secretly warned the South African government that a looming food crisis could prompt the military to seize power if it was asked to put down popular protests. Pretoria says it has strongly advised against any move to overthrow the Zimbabwean president by force.
The South African sources named the hardline head of the air force, Air Marshal Perence Shiri, as the most likely to lead a coup, giving good grounds for Mr Tsvangirai to fear a military takeover. Air Marshal Shiri, who commanded the army brigade responsible for the Matabeleland massacres 15 years ago, has been a firm Mugabe loyalist and would only be likely to remove the president because he feared he was jeopardising the ruling Zanu-PF's grip on power.
The Zimbabwe government yesterday dismissed any possibility that military officers might be plotting against Mr Mugabe. "Don't ask me about stupid things," said the Information Minister, Mr Jonathan Moyo. "You guys write stories and then turn around and ask me to comment about these stupid things . . . I will not dignify such trash."
The Speaker of Parliament, Mr Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is very close to the military and widely touted as Mr Mugabe's successor, laughed when asked about a potential coup. "I am hearing this for the first time," he said and hung up.
President Thabo Mbeki's office in Pretoria did not immediately respond.
Western diplomats described the reports of a potential coup as "pretty credible" and a "fair assessment", and said that South Africa's role in the Zimbabwe crisis was fundamental, particularly as far as the economic situation is concerned.
Mr Mugabe (77), appears more isolated and vulnerable than at any time of his 21 years in office. Two key cabinet ministers - Defence Minister Mr Moven Mahachi and Employment Minister Mr Border Gezi - have died in car accidents in the past four weeks, and a third, Trade Minister Mr Nkosana Moyo, has resigned in protest at the violent invasions of factories by Mr Mugabe's war veterans.
On a visit to South Africa last week, the US Secretary of State, Mr Colin Powell, described the Zimbabwean regime as totalitarian. Virtually all major western donors have stopped new aid to Harare.