Poland:After Sunday's election victory, Poland's Civic Platform (PO) weighed up coalition options yesterday and named their first political priority: to rebuild relations in the EU, which have been strained by the departing Kaczynski government.
News that Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Law and Justice (PiS) party was leaving office generated a collective sigh of relief in European capitals yesterday after two fraught years.
"The [Civic] Platform now has to ensure that Polish politics is led back to the heart of European integration and away from the margins into which it was pushed by Law and Justice," said PO deputy chairman Bronislaw Komorowski, adding that a new government should not be expected before November 10th.
"The number-one issue today is not simply to form a majority government, but to form a majority that will be able to effectively protect the government from presidential vetoes."
The remark suggests that the PO is already concerned about the consequences of a political co-habitation with Polish president Lech Kaczynski, a staunch PiS man and twin brother of the departing prime minister. Making this relationship work will make or break PO plans to rehabilitate Poland's image in the EU.
"I think it will be relatively easy for [PO leader Donald] Tusk to turn Poland's image around in the EU; he will be given the benefit of the doubt," said Pawel Swieboda, director of the DemosEuropa think tank.
"But in Poland, the president controls the levers in security, defence and foreign policy, so he could be quite difficult if he wants to be. The president has also gone to the European Council meetings for the last year, something Mr Tusk will not be willing to give up."
With 41.4 per cent of the vote, a PO coalition with the Peasants' Party (PSL, 9 per cent) would give a parliamentary majority of 243 seats in the 460-seat lower house, the Sejm. But by adding the 13 per cent support of the LiD alliance of post-communists and left-wing liberals, the government would have a two-thirds parliamentary majority to steamroll the president and keep Warsaw speaking with one voice.
Sunday's election victory was a remarkable turnaround for Mr Tusk, just two years after he lost the presidential election to Mr Kaczynski. Born in Gdansk in 1957, Mr Tusk was a student when he began writing critical articles for the underground press as Poland's communist authorities imposed martial law in an attempt to smother the Solidarity trade union and its demands for democratic elections.
Married with two grown-up children, he has been a career politician since 1989 and co-founded the PO in 2001. This, however, is his first political office.
Colleagues describe Mr Tusk as everything Mr Kaczynski is not: careful, consensus-driven, bookish, and with a low-key personal charm. Still, he silenced those who had written him off as a political "softie" when he wiped the floor in a televised election debate with Mr Kaczynski.
PO officials signalled yesterday that they would sign up Poland to the Charter on Fundamental Human Rights, undoing the opt-out negotiated by the Kaczynski government at last week's summit.
Warmer relations with Berlin are also guaranteed: Mr Tusk knows German chancellor Angela Merkel well and their parties are members of the European People's Party in the European Parliament. Relations with the US could be tricky, however. The PO leader has pledged to withdraw Poland's 900 troops from Iraq and to drive a harder bargain on Washington's proposed missile defence system.
Redrawing the map: voters abandon populists and move towards the centre
Sunday's general election in Poland was a landmark event in the country's recent history, motivating younger generations of normally apathetic voters and redrawing Poland's political map.
Poll analyses showed yesterday that the departing Law and Justice (PiS) party lost in nearly every walk of Polish life and almost every part of the country.
Every age group except the over-60s voted overwhelmingly (50 per cent plus) for the Civic Platform (PO), while PiS only mustered an average of 25 per cent support.
Poll analysis showed that the centrist electorate and one-time PiS voters from 2005, mostly living in cities and towns, shifted to PO.
PiS meanwhile gained votes in rural, staunchly Catholic areas that once voted for its former coalition partners, the League of Polish Families (LPR) and Self Defence, two populist parties that will not be represented in the next parliament.
"The best news is the death of the populist parties: Polish democracy definitely got stronger," commented Rzeczpospolitanewspaper, allied to PiS.
"Law and Justice lost because it made no effort to modernise the country: fighting corruption turned out not to be enough for the voters. (But) Kaczynski is no authoritarian weakening democracy: instead of going on as prime minister he voluntarily turned to voters and lost the elections," the paper said.
At the Polish embassy in Dublin, officials worked through the night to count over 14,000 votes and were still working yesterday, with a result expected today.
In the US, two-thirds of Polish emigrants voted for PiS.
After a highly personalised and bitter election campaign, nearly all newspapers portrayed the election as a personal victory for PO leader Donald Tusk.
The Dziennikdaily said the strength of the PO result came from Mr Tusk's steadfast refusal to enter a coalition with PiS and risk being tainted in the eyes of voters.
"Then PO took over some populist slogans from PiS, promised a lot to everybody and carefully avoided talking about painful reforms," said the newspaper.
Commentators looked forward to an end to the Kaczynski era of political squabbling that distracted attention and energy from policy-making.
"Mr Tusk will try to end the political wars, looking to the European Championships 2012 and a better use of European funds," said the influential Gazeta Wyborczanewspaper.
"With that in mind, he could neutralise the president's veto." But the paper expressed concern that Mr Tusk's personal ambitions to become president - a second chance looming in 2010 - could weaken his authority within the party and with voters.