The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll suggests voters are in broad agreement with the Government regarding the need for fiscal prudence in the absence of clarity or certainty regarding the impact of Brexit on our economy.
Satisfaction with how the Government is running the country has climbed to 42 per cent, a gain of 11 points since our May poll, taken just before the Dáil rose for summer recess.
Throughout the Brexit process, voters have generally endorsed the consistent and cohesive approach adopted by Government, and this continues to be the case
Interviewing on this latest poll took place between Friday and Sunday of last week, days after the publication of Budget 2020 and in the afterglow of the Varadkar-Johnson Brexit parley.
Throughout the Brexit process, voters have generally endorsed the consistent and cohesive approach adopted by Government, and this continues to be the case.
Following last week’s summit between Varadkar and Johnson, which appeared to throw the negotiations a badly needed lifeline, satisfaction with the Government’s Brexit strategy is now at 60 per cent, up from 54 per cent in March when last measured.
With a change of prime minister in the UK and the attendant risk of a no-deal Brexit, some doubt may have crept in regarding the wisdom of Ireland’s and the EU’s unwillingness to compromise, fearing what might happen when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object.
A change in UK leadership has not substantially altered Irish public opinion on whether the Government should give ground on Brexit. Compared with our March poll, the proportion in favour of compromise is one point lower at 42 per cent, while the proportion against any compromise is five points higher at 47 per cent.
Big mover
Varadkar is another big mover in today’s poll. His personal satisfaction rating has jumped 15 points, to 51 per cent.
Satisfaction with Micheál Martin is three points higher (up to 38 per cent) and is now significantly ahead of Mary Lou McDonald (on 30 per cent, down three points) and Brendan Howlin (on 20 per cent, up one point).
Neither a satisfaction ratings bump for the Taoiseach nor the 2020 Budget announcement has translated into a boost for Fine Gael. The party remains on 29 per cent, four points clear of Fianna Fáil.
Perhaps it was unrealistic to think Fine Gael would receive a boost from a budget that did not give much, if anything, away. Throw in a carbon tax increase and it is not surprising that just 6 per cent of voters feel better off after the budget, compared to 32 per cent left feeling worse off.
Fianna Fáil register 25 per cent in this latest poll, down one point. The party has now polled between 24 per cent and 26 per cent in every Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll since December 2017. Unless Fianna Fáil can break out of this range, it is unlikely they will threaten Fine Gael who have not once dropped below 29 per cent over the same period.
Cumulative decline
Support for Sinn Féin has fallen by two points, to 14 per cent. While two points is only a marginal loss, it brings the cumulative decline in support during 2019 to 10 points.
Having rebounded from its low of 4 per cent to reach 7 per cent, Labour have given back one point and are on 6 per cent is this poll.
The Independents/Others grouping, including the Green Party, are four points higher, up to 26 per cent and their highest rating since the 2016 General Election.
What lies behind the losses for Sinn Féin and the gains made by the Greens are the changing loyalties of young voters
On a party level, the Greens are the winners in today’s poll, up four points to 8 per cent (and a feat last achieved in 2007). The party has managed to translate some of the enthusiasm for its European election candidates into support for the party, helped no doubt by the emergence of climate change as a significant global risk.
What lies behind the losses for Sinn Féin and the gains made by the Greens are the changing loyalties of young voters. For example, the Green Party now attracts 12 per cent of the vote among the under 35s, up from only 3 per cent in March.
Contrast this with the fortunes of Sinn Féin among the same age cohort, where support has collapsed from a high of 37 per cent in March to just 21 per cent in this latest poll.
It is also among the under 35s where support for the two main parties diverges the most. Fine Gael have 28 per cent support among this group, compared to just 15 per cent for Fianna Fáil.
In the past, what has dimmed the attractiveness of young voters to political parties has been their lack of engagement in politics. Turnout has typically been lower among this age group. But recent referenda have injected a new energy, with social issues and climate change engaging these younger voters.
Expect the key battleground in the forthcoming election to be the under 35s, whether as way for Fianna Fail to edge out Fine Gael, for Sinn Féin to spark a recovery or for the Greens to further consolidate recent gains.
