Almost on the eve of the very last month we have had political movement in Westminster. Defections from both the Labour Party and from the Tories have sparked the change. There was also a reported threatened rebellion by Tory ministers virulently opposed to a no deal.
And so over the space of less than a day we had Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn relent on a second referendum, and then prime minister Theresa May accept for the first time that Brexit may be delayed beyond March 29th.
On March 12th, or possibly earlier, MPs will be offered a possible three votes on the future of the UK. The first will be the “meaningful vote” on a revised Brexit deal, with the British government now trying to negotiate backstop concessions in Brussels in the run-up to it.
If that fails, a second vote will take place quickly afterward. This will propose that Britain leaves the European Union on a no-deal basis. This will essentially put the hardline Brexiteers to the sword, as it is likely there will be a big majority in the Commons opposed to a no deal.
If that fails, as it almost certainly will, there will be a third vote, probably the next day. This will allow for a delay in the Article 50 exit process.
Unlike Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin’s amendment last month calling for a nine-month delay, May told the House of Commons yesterday the delay would be a short, sharp one.
Three months is the maximum, she said. If it were any longer Britain would have to hold European Parliament elections, which is clearly not desirable for the government.
As we report in ourlead story today all this has not gone down well with the hardline Brexiteers of the European Research Group.
Indeed Jacob Rees-Mogg even went as far to describe the possible delay as “a plot to stop Brexit altogether”.
“It would be overthrowing a referendum result, two general elections - one to call for the referendum, one to endorse the referendum - and would undermine our democracy,” he said.
All of these developments have reduced the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.
Dublin, not surprisingly, responded positively to the change of tune in both British Labour and in the May government. As we report Ms May might need “legal assurances and perhaps minor changes in the backstop” to win over the harder elements in her party, and the DUP.
National children’s hospital saga continues
If Simon Harris and the Government think they have drawn a line under the national children’s hospital costs crisis, other politicians have a different opinion.
Not least the members of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), who continue to look into the many aspects and factors that have led to such a worrying escalation of costs for the taxpayer.
And of course, there is a PwC report, due to be published next month, on how the costs have spiralled.
Jennifer Bray reports this morning on a letter written to the PAC by Paul Quinn, the Government’s chief procurement officer.
He has also been a member of the development board for the hospital board in a personal capacity since 2013.
Mr Quinn’s position in the Department of Public Expenditure saw him dealing with the PAC in relation to its role. However, he did not tell the PAC he was also on the hospital development board.
In the letter, he accepts “in hindsight” he should have informed the PAC about his dual role in a letter he sent to the committee last month on behalf of the Department of Public expenditure.”
The key passage quoted by Bray: “I accept in hindsight that I should have advised that I was a member of the National Paediatric Hospital Development Board having been appointed in a personal capacity by the Minister for Health in 2013.”
He has defended not reporting the costs issue to the Ministers for Health and Public Expenditure personally, saying he was satisfied the board had made the Department of Health and the HSE aware of all times about the costs.
You can read Jennifer's story here.
Best reads
Miriam Lord's column has the best intro of the year so far: "The Brexit Apocalypse Bill, a belching omnibus of a vehicle, reversed into Dáil Éireann at teatime on Tuesday, polluting the chamber with rancid fumes which nobody requested and nobody wanted."
Denis Staunton writes that Theresa May's promise to allow MPs to postpone Brexit has lowered the chances of a no-deal Brexit.
Frances McDonnell examines a new risk report for the British government that finds the Brexit impact could be worse for Northern Ireland.
Sarah Burns reports on what Pat Rabbitte, the incoming chair of Tusla, is likely to tell an Oireachtas joint committee tomorrow about his new role.
Playbook
Dáil
Are they Brexit-ready in the Dáil? Well if it’s judged on talkathons, they sure are. Twenty-two hours of debate on the Brexit Bill with questions to Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar thrown in as well.
If you want to get a really good sense of what is contained in this huge Omnibus Bill, the Library Service of the Oireachtas have a really comprehensive Bill digest that tells you all you need to know.
Anyway here’s the exciting line-up for today.
9.30am: Parliamentary Questions to Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney.
11am: Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Bill 2019 - Second Stage (resumed).
Noon: Leaders’ Questions.
13.20pm: Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (Consequential Provisions) Bill 2019 - Second Stage (resumed).
23.30pm: Dáil adjourns.
Seanad
10.30am: Commencement matters.
11.30am: Order of Business.
12.45am: Statements on “Update on Implementation of the National Forestry Programme”.
2pm: Judicial Appointments Commission Bill 2017 - Committee Stage (resumed again. It’s getting to be Jarndyce v Jarndyce.
5pm: Statements on Defence Matters.
6.30pm: Private Members’ Business: Motion on gambling from Independent Senators.
Committees
9am: Joint Committee on Justice and Equality will get a briefing on the Brexit Bill from Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan.
9am: Joint Committee on Health is conducting pre-legislative scrutiny on the General Scheme of the Assisted Human Reproduction Bill 2017. Representatives from LGBT Ireland will attend.
9.30am: Joint Committee on Transport is looking at rural taxis and the rural transport programme with representatives of taxi organisations.
10am: Joint Committee on Children and Youth Affairs will engage with Pat Rabbitte, the former TD and minister who is chairman-designate of Tusla.
2pm: Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight will look at the Central Bank’s macroeconomic analysis and fiscal risks.
