Minister for Social Protection Joan Burton, the clear favourite to win her party's leadership contest this week, could bring three new Labour faces into Cabinet. Taoiseach Enda Kenny and the new Labour leader will hold talks this weekend to formulate a "reprioritisation" of Government targets ahead of the Cabinet reshuffle announcement anticipated on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Ms Burton and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin will remain in their departments, if she is elected leader on Friday, and she is expected to ask Mr Kenny to appoint her deputy to Cabinet. “Her potential for completely revamping is limited enough so she must be judicious in her appointments,” said a Labour source.
Minister of State for public transport Alan Kelly is regarded as the front-runner in the deputy leadership race. Geography and gender balance would be priorities when it comes to filling the two remaining Cabinet slots, with Minister of State for mental health Kathleen Lynch widely regarded as deserving promotion from the junior ministerial ranks.
Speculation in Labour circles is that the final slot will be filled by Minister of State for primary care Alex White, Ms Burton’s competitor in the leadership race, or the party’s “super junior” Minister Jan O’Sullivan, who has responsibility for housing and planning.
The three slots are expected to be freed up following the possible departure from Cabinet of three Dublin representatives: Minister for Foreign Affairs Eamon Gilmore, Minister for Education Ruairí Quinn and Minister for Communications Pat Rabbitte.
On the Fine Gael side, Minister for Health James Reilly was described as "vulnerable" by a source close to Government.
Some party backbenchers would be outraged if he was not removed from the department but his position as deputy leader of Fine Gael means he is expected to be offered a new post. “The question is, will the Taoiseach offer him something else, and will James accept it?” the source said.
The question of who will secure the position of Ireland's new European Commissioner will also have to be discussed by Mr Kenny and the new Labour leader. Another Taoiseach loyalists, Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan, wants the position, which is expected to be secured by the party. Mr Gilmore's name has also been mentioned and a Labour source insisted "nothing is ruled out". The source said this also applied to a possible limited redistribution of departments between the Coalition partners.
A potential speedbump between the party leaders could be the allocation of the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation, currently occupied by Fine Gael’s Richard Bruton. A Labour insider said: “I suspect Labour will certainly ask for it, possibly even demand it. I would think there would be a lot of Fine Gael resistance. They will fight tooth and nail to keep control. Both sides will play a bit of poker.”
With the Dáil rising for the summer recess on July 17th and the budget scheduled for October 14th, the timeframe for negotiations is tight.
Minister for Transport Leo Varadkar yesterday said he was “not going to speculate” about the reshuffle.
