In the world of surfing, timing is everything. You wait on the shore for weeks, and months, and then suddenly the ideal conditions materialise out of nowhere - without rhyme or reason. It doesn’t matter what you have done or haven’t done, you just catch that wave and surf it home.
That’s Sinn Féin right now. It seems to have staged a Lazarus-style recovery in the eight short months after it was pummelled in the local and European elections. When commentators (including this one) looked at the signs, they suggested the party was in slippage territory. That view was shared by just about everybody – including Sinn Féin.
That happened to Fianna Fáil and the Greens in the locals of 2009, and to Labour in 2014, but the big difference here is Sinn Fein is a party of opposition and not of government - that made a difference. Look how quickly Fine Gael bounced back from self-destruction in June 2010 to almost win an overall majority in January 2011.
Sinn Féin did analyse what went wrong and made some adjustments. When the November byelections happened and the party won in Dublin Mid West, it was viewed as a bit of an outlier more than a straw in the wind. If anything, it said maybe Sinn Féin might be okay in its solid constituencies.
So all the party’s strategies were predicated on Sinn Féin losing up to ten seats. Sinn Féin itself knew it was facing some losses.
What everybody underestimated was the mood of the electorate at the start of the campaign – and that was for change. It was most keenly felt in the 25-to-34 age group. These are the millennials, the people who pay high rents, who have insecure work and have little prospect of buying a home in the near term. These are the generational losers, and they are looking for change.
It was astounding to see that Sinn Féin was the preferred choice of a clear majority of the 25-to-34 age group, right across the country, according to a recent Irish Times poll.
Last June most people would have looked at climate change as the change factor, but it is not. It is economics and generational disadvantage, and when this group looked around for a repository for its views, it was Sinn Féin it turned to at the start of this campaign.
The two big parties are establishment. So are the smaller parties willing to go into coalition. So it has not become a climate-change election. The Green approach has been too wan, too wishy washy. The Greens are being too reasonable, not shouting for radical change or drawing their own blood to daub their red lines.
Sinn Féin has cleverly understood that and acted accordingly. Mary Lou McDonald is not a difficult second album after Gerry Adams - in fact, she is a leader much more in tune with the southern electorate. Her strident tone in debate is off-putting to some but attractive to others. She is an asset - and so are Eoin Ó Broin and Pearse Doherty.
And the party’s manifesto, unveiled yesterday, marks a dramatic departure from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. A huge increase in spending (€22 billion over the next five years) and some very generous tax cuts, compensated by a slew of taxes against the big corporations and the wealthy. It’s forceful populism, shouting through the tannoy style, but it works.
In contrast, Labour did not quite make the same mark yesterday. Miriam Lord in her piece (see below) focused on the fact the party “doughnutted” party leader Brendan Howlin with veterans rather than younger aspirants. Its big manifesto item was housing, promising to spend €16 billion to build 60,000 houses over five years (raiding the Rainy Day fund to do so), as well as putting €5 billion extra into health during that period.
There were some interesting ideas (including repealing the 2004 referendum that denies automatic rights of residency to children born in Ireland to non-Irish parents), but overall it just lacked impact and was a little too mainstream.
So before another big seven-leader debate tomorrow on Virgin Media One, the two biggest parties are wheeling out big guns today (Simon Coveney, Paschal Donohoe, Jim O’Callaghan and Lisa Chambers). You can take it the focus of their criticism will be Sinn Féin.
Best reads
Cliff Taylor runs through the numbers on the Sinn Féin manifesto.
Miriam Lord, as near as Irish journalism will ever get to a Velasquez, paints a picture of the Labour and Sinn Féin manifesto launches.
Pat Leahy's report on the Sinn Féin manifesto.
Jennifer Bray details the Labour Party manifesto.
The Irish Times view on why climate change has lost out in this campaign.
Marie O'Halloran was at the Fianna Fáil's agriculture policy launch.
My report on the TG4 Ipsos MRBI poll on Galway West that shows controversial Independent TD Noel Grealish may be in danger.
The cringeworthy story of the campaign: Catherine Noone's abject apology for some very inappropriate comments.
Simon Carswell has written an election fact check on the pension time bomb.
Election playbook
Tánaiste Simon Coveney will lead a Fine Gael news conference on economic progress, childcare and working families along with Ministers Paschal Donohoe, Regina Doherty and Heather Humphreys. It’s on at 1pm.
Fianna Fáíl will present fresh proposals to regulate gambling at a press event at noon with Jim O’Callaghan and Lisa Chambers.
Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin TD will travel to Kildare North.
At 2pm Labour will publish its education proposals, with Senator Aodhán Ó Riordáin outlining new spending of €140 million.
The Green Party will unveil its transport policy at 2pm in Temple Bar gallery. It wants 10 per cent of all transport spending on cycling and a further 10 per cent on walking, and it wants public transport to get priority over roads.
Solidarity-People Before Profit will announce its environmental policy and its eco-socialist manifesto today. Brid Smith, Ruth Coppinger, Richard Boyd Barrett and Paul Murphy will attend.
The Social Democrats will launch their Arts and Culture policy in Temple Bar.
Oh, and a tasty sting in the tail: Bryan Dobson’s one-on-one interview at 7pm is with Eamon Ryan.
