While Fine Gael and Labour often quarrelled in public when Enda Kenny shared responsibility with Eamon Gilmore at the top of Government, it was said the relationship between the pair was cordial.
Kenny and Gilmore’s advisers largely fought battles on their behalf as the two principals remained on relatively good terms.
The opposite is now true between Kenny and Joan Burton, Gilmore’s successor as Labour leader and Tánaiste, a reality that made the resolution of last week’s fight over the timing of the election a challenge to solve.
Sources across the Coalition, who say Kenny has made a definite effort to get on with Burton, acknowledge the relationship between the Taoiseach and Tánaiste must be rebuilt.
Previous disagreements include the sale of Aer Lingus and Burton irked Fine Gael recently when she claimed credit for pushing the larger party to see the merits of USC reductions rather than cuts to the top income tax rate.
However, those around the two are said to recognise the problems in the relationship and believe the backrooms get on well enough to keep the show on the road.
While Kenny and Burton spoke last week, Mark Mortell, a key Kenny adviser, and Ed Brophy, Burton’s chief of staff, also held meetings.
Fine Gael’s preference for November was met with Labour insistence that it should be held in spring, with the differences emerging in public via statements from Burton and silence from Kenny
Despite the meetings, Labour still believed on Friday night it was facing a November election. Kenny was due on RTÉ’s The Week in Politics on Sunday and it was believed that November would be on unless he definitively stated a preference for 2016.
It is understood Labour was informed of what Kenny was going to say, with the caveat that he saw no reason to change his previously stated views on spring 2016 election “at the moment”.
Fine Gael Ministers were also briefed to that effect on Saturday, as were the Sunday papers, and it seemed like November would still be a strong possibility. Instead, Kenny hardened his position in the RTÉ studio, while still leaving the door to November slightly ajar.
Fine Gael Ministers were taken aback, believing Kenny would merely attempt to ease tensions in budget week. Some felt the capitulation to Labour displayed weakness at a time when the mood music could not be stronger for Fine Gael.
Comparisons were inevitably drawn with the decision by John Bruton to go to the country early in 1997, despite having a couple of months left at his disposal. Some claimed Kenny’s decision on timing may harm Fine Gael in the longer run if catastrophe or controversy strikes between now and spring.
Tribunal details
A popular lament from those involved in the Rainbow Coalition of Fine Gael, Democratic Left and Labour, is that it would have been returned to office had Bruton held on until later in 1997. Tribunal details to emerge about Charles Haughey would have damaged Fianna Fáil.
However, a source involved at senior levels in Fine Gael at the time said they also shared a tribunal related concern, although about Michael Lowry, who resigned from Fine Gael in 1996.
Ivan Yates, then minister for agriculture, has often been blamed for pushing Bruton into going earl y. Yates denies this and says Labour leader Dick Spring – who did not return requests for comment – was the main driving force behind a June election.
Nora Owen, then minister for justice, claims Yates was at least partially to blame for convincing Burton of the merits of going early because farmers would be angry later in the year over the price of beef.
“Ivan was seen as one of those with street cred (in the party),” said Owen.
“I said the price of beef in the autumn would be very poor, and that happened,” said Yates, who noted that Fine Gael won seats in that election. Voters, he said, punished Labour instead for entering Coalition with Fianna Fáil after the 1992 election.
However, Yates, Owen and others involved believe the timing may not have made much difference at all to the final result.
Kenny must hope the same is the case this time around.
