Politics

Exit poll: Independents, smaller parties most popular in Dublin

Outside capital Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil neck and neck in rural constituencies

Irish Times Exit poll shows in Dublin Fine Gael is on 25.7 per cent; Sinn Féin is on 15.4 per cent; Fianna Fáil is on 14.6 per cent; Labour is on 9.4 per cent and Independents and others are on 34.9 per Photograph: Alan Betson / The Irish Times
Irish Times Exit poll shows in Dublin Fine Gael is on 25.7 per cent; Sinn Féin is on 15.4 per cent; Fianna Fáil is on 14.6 per cent; Labour is on 9.4 per cent and Independents and others are on 34.9 per Photograph: Alan Betson / The Irish Times
Fiach Kelly
Sat Feb 27 2016 - 00:04

Fine Gael is the most popular party in Dublin on almost 26 per cent but an even bigger number of voters in the capital chose Independents and smaller parties, according to an exit poll conducted for The Irish Times by Ipsos/MRBI.

The exit poll, with a sample of 5,200 people, shows that in Dublin Fine Gael is on 25.7 per cent; Sinn Féin is on 15.4 per cent; Fianna Fáil is on 14.6 per cent; Labour is on 9.4 per cent and Independents and others are on 34.9 per cent.

Of Independents and others, the breakdown is as follows: Green Party 4.8 per cent; Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit (AAA-PBP) 7.8 per cent; Social Democrats 3.4 per cent; Renua 4.2 per cent and others 14.7 per cent.

Rest of Leinster

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In the rest of Leinster, Fine Gael is on 25.6 per cent; Fianna Fáil is on 23.9 per cent; Sinn Féin is on 17.8 per cent; Labour is on 8.5 per cent and Independents and others are on 24.3 per cent.

The 24.3 per cent for Independents and others in the rest of Leinsterbreaks down as follows: Green Party 4.9 per cent; AAA-PBP 1.8 per cent; Social Democrats 5.1 per cent; Renua 2.9 per cent and others 9.6 per cent.

Munster

In Munster, Fine Gael is on 24.1 per cent with Fianna Fáil on 25.9 per cent. Sinn Féin is on 11.2 per cent; Labour is on 8.8 per cent and Independents and others on 30 per cent.

The 30 per cent for Independents and others in Munster breaks down as 2.7 per cent for the Green Party; 3.5 per cent for AAA-PBP; 1.5 per cent for the Social Democrats; Renua on 1.1 per cent and others on 21.2 per cent.

Connaught-Ulster

In Connaught-Ulster Fine Gael is on 30 per cent, with Fianna Fáil just behind on 29.4 per cent. Sinn Féin is on 15.5 per cent, with Labour on 3.3 per cent and Independents and others on 21.8 per cent.

Of the 21.8 per cent for others Connaught-Ulster, 1 per cent is for the Green Party ; AAA-PBP have polled 0.3 per cent; the Social Democrats are on 1 per cent; Renua is on 0.7 per cent and others are on 18.9 per cent .

The regional breakdown of the exit poll results mean that, outside of Dublin, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will be effectively neck and neck in rural constituencies when votes are counted later on Saturday.

The strong showing of Independents and others in Dublin also make it likely that many counts in constituencies in the capital will be drawn out, with the last seats extremely hard to call.

The fractured nature of the Independent count, with many non-party candidates standing in almost all constituencies, will also make the transfer pattern extremely unpredictable.