After a long discussion at Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting, the Government expressed confidence in the Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan.
But it did so in terms so heavily qualified that the commissioner’s ability to continue credibly in the position, even in the short-term, is in serious doubt.
In the medium-term, there are few people in political circles, including in Government, who believe that her position is tenable.
The next hurdle for O'Sullivan is the Oireachtas justice committee on Thursday morning. After that, there's a motion of no confidence in the Dáil next week.
Events are closing in.
This fatalistic view of the commissioner’s future appears to extend to the Independent Alliance. Its members at Cabinet agreed to the statement expressing confidence in O’Sullivan but the group’s spokeswoman later said they were “keeping an open mind on everything”.
The Independent Alliance’s members, she said, had not managed to have their weekly meeting on Tuesday and would “wait and see” what the commissioner says when she appears before the justice committee.
Fianna Fáil is even more circumspect. After leader Micheál Martin effectively said that the commissioner should resign ("consider her position" was the euphemism employed), Fianna Fáil said that it was "not in a position to express confidence" in the commissioner.
And yet, perhaps because it doesn’t want to side with Sinn Féin against the gardaí, Fianna Fáil avoided committing to voting no confidence in the commissioner – even if that is precisely the logic of the party’s position.
The Independents’ wary approach to the commissioner’s future may be a bit amateurish, but it reflects a widespread sentiment across Government and the entire political spectrum. In truth, most people in Government regard every Garda controversy – and they have arrived with some regularity – as a political minefield.
Ultimate power
Precisely because policing matters are so serious – gardaí, after all, wield the ultimate power of the State: to enforce the law and deprive citizens of their liberty – the political stakes are always high.
In truth, the fate of O'Sullivan is a less important matter than the future of An Garda Síochána.
On Tuesday, the Cabinet reached two decisions about the Garda – to set up an inquiry into the latest controversy and to set up another process which will lead to a complete overhaul and reorganisation of the force.
No real thought has gone into these decisions – they were reached because there was a need for a political fix. But they indicate that the Government accepts the deep nature of the cultural problems in the gardaí, and the need for dramatic and radical action to fix them.
The model mentioned by Government sources was the Patten Commission in the North – which, let us not forget, led to the disbandment of the RUC and its replacement by the PSNI.
Now the gardaí will not be disbanded, but the view in Government is that it must be completely reformed and rebuilt.
These two processes will be independent, because, frankly (something most Ministers admit privately) they cannot believe what the Garda tells them anymore. That this is generally accepted should not detract from its starkness and seriousness in a modern democracy.
Smear campaign
But then, we already know that the Government does not trust what the commissioner tells it. That is the only rationale to the establishment of the Charleton Tribunal of Inquiry into the allegations of a smear campaign against the Garda whistleblower Maurice McCabe. If the Government believed the commissioner’s account of things, it wouldn’t be setting up a tribunal to find out the truth. It would just accept the commissioner’s word.
The fact that the Garda’s political masters have so little trust in the force is not just a poor state of affairs, it is a downright dangerous one.
This is not a political nicety – it is one of the basic building blocks of a society built on the rule of law, democratically formulated, and independently and fairly enforced and administered.
It will require more than short-term political fixes to correct it.
