There is an old saying in Irish politics that the first thing on the agenda for any new political party is the split.
As soon as the two main Trotskyist movements in Ireland announced on Wednesday they will be joining forces, some politicians from other parties wondered aloud how long it will all last before it all goes south.
It seems churlish to be predicting the end of an alliance before it is even formed. But there is some form in this regard. The Anti-Austerity Alliance (the Socialist Party mainly) and People Before Profit (essentially the Socialist Workers Party nowadays) were at the core of the United Left Alliance that took five Dáil seats in 2011.
The five members were Joe Higgins and Clare Daly of the Socialist Party, Joan Collins and Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit and Tipperary TD Séamus Healy (Workers and Unemployed Action Group).
Even informed left wing people would have difficulties pointing out any major ideological or policy difference between any of the five. But within a year cracks began to appear.
The ULA was bedevilled by personality clashes and rows over approach. The Socialist Workers Party in particular was keen for the alliance to attain party status as quickly as possible but others dragged their heels, the Socialist Party and Healy in particular.
Close as they were ideologically, there were historical rivalries and tensions between the Socialist Party and Socialist Workers Party, that were never easy to explain but were real and major enough.
‘Realm of Sinn Féin’
An internal SWP document published by The Irish Times at the time gave an insight into the difficulties. "The space that the ULA should occupy is now the realm of Sinn Féin spokespeople.
“The weakness of the ULA is a product of the sectarianism of the SP and the conservatism of Joan Collins and the Healy group…We suggested a common ULA strategy for the household campaign but this was shot down as the other components would rather not be tied to the SWP.”
It also contended that the SWP was being pushed to the margins by the other components of the alliance.
The logic behind forming a new party is obvious. Both groups form part of a broader movement that has campaigned against water charges, property taxes and other “austerity” measures.
There is potential to harness a sizeable “anti-austerity” vote but they will be better placed to do it as a unitary party rather than as disparate and piecemeal entities. Sinn Féin are in the same space and they will need to be organised and coherent to take on that formidable political machine.
In addition, some of the TDs associated with the Shane Ross alliance will be fishing out of the same pool. And then, the Right2Water movement, with a strong trade union presence, could also end up as a Right2Change party or grouping, with its own manifesto written by economist Michael Taft. Former ULA members Joan Collins and Clare Daly could very well form part of that group.
So, some kind of unified front is necessary. That said, the problems that beset the previous attempt at coalescing have not been taken away by magic in the meantime.
‘Backdrop of a radicalisation’
A very detailed press release on Wednesday set out the rationale: “With the backdrop of a radicalisation in Irish society, a growing rejection of the traditional establishment parties, and in particular, the active movement against water charges, the left can make gains in the upcoming election.”
Three of the four are Socialist Party TDs (Higgins, Ruth Coppinger and Paul Murphy) and the fourth is Richard Boyd-Barrett of People Before Profit (formerly of the Socialist Workers Party). They have already notified the Registrar of Political Parties to register the name (Anti Austerity Alliance-People Before Profit). They also have the support of 28 local councillors.
Opinion polls have consistently shown that non-aligned candidates and smaller parties should make big gains in the general election. On previous experience, the gains might not be as dramatic as the polls suggest but will still be significant.
The trick for each party is to get to the magic number of seven TDs. If they do that it gives them powerful rights in the Dáil, including speaking slots and tabling private members motions. It also gives a right to speak for the Leaders Questions slot. The new party should easily exceed that threshold (indeed, there could be as many as six groupings entitled to participate in Leaders Questions in the next Dáil). The big challenge for the new party will be keeping it together in the longer term.
