The Government will have a lot of explaining to do when Tánaiste Leo Varadkar and other senior Ministers meet representatives of the hospitality industry today.
The situation has changed from one where restaurants and pubs were preparing to open for indoor services next Monday to a fresh limbo for a sector that’s one of the worst hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Government has agreed to a recommendation from the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) that the sector should not reopen indoors until a workable system is in place to prove customers have been vaccinated.
People who have yet to be vaccinated will be left out in the cold - though perhaps not literally given the current fine weather and the heatwave expected in the coming days.
However, not all restaurants and pubs have fancy outdoor dining areas, and the industry is - and this would be an understatement - apoplectic at the decision.
Mr Varadkar and fellow Cabinet colleagues Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly and Minister for Tourism Catherine Martin can expect more than an earful when they meet the sector today.
Demands can be expected for a new opening date for indoor services, and there will be claims that the mooted vaccine pass system will be unworkable – that it is unfair to younger customers and to unvaccinated staff. There is also the issue of how it will be policed.
Those in the hospitality sector are not the only ones with concerns over how all this will work.
The Opposition is having a field day with the latest mess the Government finds itself in - Labour leader Alan Kelly branding the vaccine pass plan as “absolutely bananas”, discriminatory, unenforceable and “amateur hour”.
And as we report in our lead, the HSE privately raised concerns over the idea of vaccine passes with senior Ministers on Monday night.
The Cabinet decision the next day all stems from highly contentious advice from Nphet based on dire projections on the spread of Covid-19 due to the highly transmissible Delta variant.
Under the most pessimistic scenario, there would be 681,900 cases by the end of September, while the most optimistic scenario would see 81,000 cases.
The most pessimistic scenario would see 12,985 hospital admissions in the same time period and 1,685 intensive care admissions, as well as 2,170 deaths.
There have been demands by some for an independent assessment of the Nphet projections.
The numbers and the resulting Nphet recommendations caught many in Government by surprise as Political Correspondent Jennifer Bray teases out in her analysis.
The Cabinet has agreed to develop a plan for a vaccine pass system by July 19th.
If it’s anything like the efforts to plan for mandatory hotel quarantine - which took two months from announcement to implementation - that deadline seems unrealistic to say the least.
With ears still ringing from the meeting with the hospitality industry, Mr Varadkar can likely expect pushback on the plans when the Fine Gael parliamentary party meets this evening.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin can expect similar at Fianna Fáil’s private meeting.
Best reads
Miriam Lord surveys Covid developments – from the Taoiseach's address to the nation that amounted to "we never saw this coming. Right, bye" to Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly leaving RTÉ's Bryan Dobson "baffled" and AK47 Kelly and Independent TD Mattie McGrath blowing twin gaskets during Leaders' Questions.
A comprehensive account of the rules on indoor hospitality around Europe - and how customers show proof of vaccination in several countries - is provided by Naomi O'Leary.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said she is "in a thrall to nobody" as she rejected claims that she is accountable to unelected figures in the organisation. See our report on her remarks at the Irish Times Summer Nights Festival.
Ronald Quinlan has a story about how Stripe cofounder John Collision has bought the Abbey Leix estate for €20 million.
Playbook
Dáil proceedings kick off with Topical Issues at the curiously precise time of 9.12am.
Then there’s a debate on proposed legislation put forward by People Before Profit on pension entitlements.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin takes Leaders’ Questions at noon.
Statements on last week’s European Council summit are due to start at 1.49pm with statements on the Covid-19 vaccine rollout to follow.
Government Bills on Defence and the Land Development Agency will be debated from 7.20pm onwards, with the weekly votes to take place at 11.20pm.
In committee-land Tánaiste Leo Varadkar will be facing questions on spending estimates for the Department of Enterprise from 9.30am.
The Committee on Tourism, Culture, Arts and Sport will hear from arts and theatre representatives on the challenges presented to their sector by Covid-19 at 12.30pm.
Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan will take part in pre-legislative scrutiny of a Road Traffic Bill at the same time, and representatives of AIB will be before the finance committee.
And of course readers can expect to be kept up to date on the goings-on at the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parliamentary party meetings this evening.
