There are many issues competing for attention once the Dáil resumes this afternoon.
The inevitable budget speculation has led to a row over a proposed childcare package, with Fine Gael claiming middle-income earners are being squeezed out by Minister for Children Katherine Zappone. Sources close to the Minister say this is not the case.
A Sinn Féin Private Members’ motion on water charges, to be debated tomorrow, is designed to embarrass Fianna Fáil.
Also this week, the Government is due to unveil its legislative programme for the rest of the year. It will reflect the reality of minority government which, to survive, must depend on the kindness of strangers.
Ha’penny place
But everything will be put into the ha’penny place by an event taking place in a basement committee room on Thursday. The Dáil Public Accounts Committee is to hear from Comptroller and Auditor General Seamus McCarthy about his report on the sale by Nama, the National Asset Management Agency, of the Project Eagle portfolio of loans on Northern Ireland property. The report concluded the taxpayer might have lost out because of the way the sale was handled. The committee is also due to hear from Nama, which has contended – more or less – that the C&AG’s office did not know what it was talking about when it came to putting a value on property.
The C&AG's report on Project Eagle, in addition to a BBC Spotlight investigation into the sale, was one of the two controversies to dominate the run-up to the new Oireachtas session. The other has been the European Commission's ruling in the Apple tax case.
The balance of power in the Dáil is so delicately poised that even mundane motions and events have the potential to destabilise the Government.
Survived
However, the minority Coalition has survived for five months and looks like it will not be brought down by any of the obstacles it will have to surmount in the autumn. The confidence and supply agreement with Fianna Fáil stated the budget would contain “no surprises”. The Government will be as good as its word on this, conceding one or two spending concessions to Fianna Fáil (primarily, more funding for third-level education) and to its Independent supporters.
With roughly €1 billion available for adjustments in the budget, the Government will devote about two thirds of this to spending and one third to tax concessions. The parties outdid each other in the general election campaign on how they would eliminate USC. The changes will be modest, especially as the one new revenue-raiser, sugar tax, has been delayed until 2018. A cut of 1 per cent in the 5.5 per cent USC rate would account for most of the available funds.
Internal debate on Zappone’s childcare package will continue right up to budget day. Minister for Finance Michael Noonan will also take oral questions in the Dáil on Thursday, with much speculation about not only his thinking on the budget but also about the state of his health.
The longevity of this Government cannot be extricated from the leadership of Enda Kenny. But both issues seem to be settled for the present time. While the potential successors to Kenny are beginning to woo support, all are wary of the Shakespearean-sounding phrase coined when pretenders started plotting against Margaret Thatcher: “He who wields the dagger shall never wear the crown.” Kenny has been able to take advantage of this warning.
Smoke out
Still, there will be hardly a week in the new Dáil session without the Opposition trying to smoke out the Independents in Government or reminding Fine Gael it no longer rules the roost. Smaller parties will try to embarrass Fianna Fáil over its support for the Government.
This week will see Sinn Féin tabling a motion on water charges. Expect a lot of sound and fury in the chamber, as the party attempts to call out Fianna Fáil for hardening its stance to oppose water charges. However, Fianna Fáil will vote with the Government.
Messier arithmetic
There will be more than 20 Bills earmarked for publication in the legislative programme for the autumn to be issued today. It is far less ambitious than previous programmes and reflects the messier arithmetic of the current Dáil. The upshot is that tough and unpopular legislation, even if deemed necessary, will not get past first base.
One unusual feature of the first week will be a rare address by the Taoiseach to the Seanad. He is expected to outline his plans for reform of the Upper House when he addresses Senators tomorrow.
No Coalition has governed from such a weak position in the history of the State. Despite the wing and a prayer nature of the journey, it has survived its first session. However, the new session will better inform the country as to what, if anything, this unusual Government can achieve.
