There are a couple of pieces of the jigsaw missing yet. With the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil parliamentary parties likely to approve the agreement on a minority government in the coming days, now it is the 32nd Dáil's Independent TDs who face decision time on Enda Kenny's bid to put together a makeshift administration and head up a second successive Fine Gael-led government.
TDs from both big parties are likely to meet tomorrow, and both are expected to ratify the agreement without difficulty.
But Kenny needs more than just Fianna Fáil’s acquiescence. With just 50 Fine Gael TDs, he needs the support of a handful of Independent TDs to reach a Dáil majority, even with his old rivals sitting on their hands when the vote for taoiseach is called.
Abstaining
Exactly how big that handful has to be isn’t yet totally clear. With Fianna Fáil abstaining, a bare Dáil majority is 58 votes – meaning Kenny needs six more votes on top of the two Independents he already has on his side,
Michael Lowry
and
Katherine Zappone
.
However, the Green Party’s two TDs are likely to abstain, bringing that number down by one, to 57. And though the Social Democrats were not available yesterday to confirm their intentions, the party’s three TDs previously abstained on votes for taoiseach, and suggested they could support a minority government on a case-by-case basis. If the Social Democrats do abstain, it brings the number required by Kenny to 55 – just three more than he currently commands.
However, senior people in Fine Gael acknowledge that both to give the government some sort of comfort in Dáil numbers but also to give it the authority to function as a genuine coalition, Kenny needs to bring in several Independents above and beyond a bare majority.
And so the wooing process will recommence this morning in Government Buildings. The six TDs of the Independent Alliance meet Fine Gael negotiators at 10am, and a meeting with the TDs of the rural alliance is scheduled for 6pm this evening.
It is not, of course, the first time the Independents and Fine Gael have sat down since the general election. More than 70 hours of talks between the sides took place intermittently over several weeks until the Independents called a halt, saying they wanted an agreement between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to be in place before they could agree a programme for government.
Draft text
The Independents were briefed on the contents of the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil document last Friday evening, but have yet to see the draft text – partly because the parties are waiting on the Independents to sign up to a minority government before they finalise things. This chicken-and-egg sequencing will have to be solved over the coming days if we are to see a new government this week.
The Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil agreement isn’t likely to cause any headaches for the Independents. Crucially, it commits to backing a Fine Gael minority government for at least three budgets.
The biggest fear the Independents have over joining a government is that it collapses within a few months and they have to face the electorate as “government” candidates.
Other commitments in the Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil deal include a review of Garda resources (understood to include Garda stations), the extension of mortgage interest relief and an examination of standard variable mortgage rates. There is also an initiative to cut waiting lists, and a rise in rent supplement of up to 15 per cent in targeted areas.
However, there will be other difficulties to overcome when the teams meet today.
While most say they believe a deal will be done to allow Enda Kenny to form a government this week, some of the Independent TDs who spoke to The Irish Times yesterday were quite pessimistic about the process being tied up quickly.
“We can see that they’re in a very big hurry to get this done,” said one Independent TD. “Much more of a hurry than we are.”
