Good morning.
There’s something for everybody in the audience in the latest Irish Times Ipsos MRBI poll this morning – unless you are an Independent, that is.
Given the recent trends, Sinn Féin will be unsurprised but jubilant to see the party has established a clear polling lead with 31 per cent support.
Furthermore, it is also making inroads across age groups and social classes.
An interesting detail is that although party popularity continues to soar, the satisfaction rating for leader Mary Lou McDonald is down three points to 42 per cent. She has now slipped behind Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin whose satisfaction rating is up by seven to 49 per cent.
It was only weeks ago that doomsayers in his party were ruminating that if the vaccination rollout did not go to plan, then a conversation would need to happen. Some TDs even had mental tallies of who was supporting who in a potential leadership battle. The truth is (and we have learned this the hard way) we don’t know what is around the corner in terms of the pandemic – but nevertheless the news is a boost for Martin, and he needed it.
And speaking of the pandemic, there were encouraging signs for the Coalition there too. A very healthy seven out of 10 voters (70 per cent) said the Government is doing a “good job” in its handling of the pandemic – an increase of 25 points since February when the country was in the midst of some of the most uncertain days of a harsh third lockdown.
It is interesting this goodwill does not seem to extend to Fine Gael, although the party will take heart in the fact that Tánaiste Leo Varadkar is still the most popular leader, commanding a satisfaction rating of 56 per cent, up four.
In terms of overall party support, however, Fine Gael has slipped back three points to 27 per cent. This is at a time when the party’s top strategists are somewhat anxious ahead of the Dublin Bay South byelection on July 8th.
The party has said the election will be a shoot-out between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. This poll won’t do anything to assuage Fine Gael fears that a repeat of 2019 is on the cards when Emer Higgins lost out to Sinn Féin’s Mark Ward in Dublin Mid West.
The Labour Party, for its part, says it very much fancies its chances in the byelection with Ivana Bacik. This poll has Labour at 3 per cent. A win in Dublin Bay South could give Labour the kind of psychological lift it clearly needs to turn the tide.
The Green Party may also have mixed feelings because while it holds steady at 6 per cent, Eamon Ryan’s satisfaction rating has slumped by nine points to 26 per cent.
Last year he saw off a challenge from Catherine Martin but only narrowly, winning 994 of the votes to Martin’s 946. He said at the time that he would reflect on that.
Overall, it is the Independents and other parties who have taken the biggest hit at 13 per cent, down six.
In his analysis of the poll, Pat Leahy says there are three big takeaways: "Sinn Féin is powering ahead. Second, the Government is holding it together, and benefits to some degree from a bounce related to vaccination, or reopening, or both. Finally, the poll shows that pandemic politics is receding and a new phase is beginning – in which health, housing and the economy will be the most important issues. Politics is returning to basics."
Here is a piece setting out all of the vital statistics.
The Irish Times and Ipsos MRBI began political polling almost 40 years ago, and the landscape has now truly changed, writes Damian Loscher.
People’s priorities
It was also fascinating to see what issues were most likely to influence a person’s vote in the next general election: the economy, 21 per cent; health, 25 per cent; house prices, 21 per cent; the cost of renting, 10 per cent; tackling climate change, 6 per cent.
The Green Party may well be wondering what thanks it will get for its efforts but in any case, the party is pushing on. Last night the Dáil passed a landmark and controversial climate action Bill by an overwhelming majority of 129 votes to 10.
The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Bill sets ambitious targets to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 with a reduction of 51 per cent in carbon emissions overall by 2030 compared to 2018 figures.
Here is Marie O'Halloran's report on that rancorous climate Bill debate.
Best Reads
Here's Miriam Lord's sketch of the day, in which Leo Varadkar takes junior minister Patrick O'Donovan to the zoo to show him there is more to the natural world than the Kerry slug.
In The Irish Times view on the Ipsos MRBI poll, the intriguing contradictions are further teased out.
Judges are easy target of populism, warns the Chief Justice designate.
Talk of a local man getting hit with a whopping €11.7 million tax bill was on everyone's lips in a small village in Offaly, writes Simon Carswell.
Playbook
Dáil
Minister for Transport Eamon Ryan kicks proceedings off by taking questions on his brief at 9am, so expect plenty of questions on the mooted resumption of international travel on July 19th.
Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath will do the same at 10.30am.
The last Leaders’ Questions of the week is at noon followed by questions on promised legislation.
Throughout the afternoon there will be various statements on fisheries, regional aviation and the impact of Covid-19 on disabilities in the health and education sectors.
At 21.42pm, the Labour Party has a Bill that would see Ministers face fines of up to €2,500 or up to two years in prison for breaching ethics law. It would enforce stricter rules on politicians who work with lobby groups when they leave the Oireachtas. The Dáil adjourns at 22.57pm. Here is the full schedule.
Seanad
The Seanad returns tomorrow morning at 9am. The main fare will be the Affordable Housing Bill and the Residential Tenancies Bill that will extend renter protections. The schedule is here.
Committees
It’s been a busy week for Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien who returns to the housing committee at 9.30am to deal with his Land Development Agency Bill.
At the same time the Committee of Public Accounts will look at the financial statements of the University of Limerick.
At 12.30pm The Sub-Committee on Mental Health will hear about the impacts of the Covid-19 lockdowns on mental health services for young people.
The full schedule can be found here.
