The first Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll since the general election reveals a political landscape transformed by the pandemic.
Three months after voters resolved to relieve Leo Varadkar of his responsibilities and replace him with – well, with someone else – they now reward him and his Government with his highest approval ratings ever. Support for his party has surged, while a majority of voters are now happy to see Fine Gael remain in government.
Varadkar could not, of course, have known what lay before him when he chose the election date in February. But he would hardly be human if he has not rued the decision not to wait until May. But no matter now; politics is about the future, not the past.
There are two caveats, one large and one small, to be borne in mind when considering today’s poll. The small one first: because the pandemic prevented Ipsos from carrying out its normal face-to-face sampling for the poll – where people are interviewed in person at their door about their views and voting intentions – this poll was conducted using telephone sampling. While Ipsos regularly uses this methodology for other clients, political opinion polls are always carried out face-to-face for The Irish Times. So today’s poll is not directly comparable with previous polls – though the comparisons are still instructive.
The second caveat is that Varadkar and Fine Gael could reasonably have expected to see their support increase and approval soar in the midst of a national emergency. Pollsters call it the “rally round the flag” effect, and it has been visible in countries all over Europe and beyond in recent months. It reflects the frightening and unprecedented times that voters find themselves in and is not, pollsters say, likely to endure once the crisis passes, or once something comes to change the political context – like, say, a general election. All that having been said, it’s better to be popular than unpopular.
And popular Varadkar certainly is. Three-quarters of voters say they are satisfied with how he is doing his job, while only a slightly smaller proportion – 72 per cent – of respondents say they are satisfied with his Government. In an age when politicians find it hard to get favourable reviews from anyone, these numbers are pretty much off the charts. Approval for the last government never rose beyond the mid-40s. It is worth noting that approval for all party leaders has risen, however.
Fine Gael’s rating today is no less vertiginous. At 37 per cent, this is the highest rating since before the 2011 general election, a sharp jump from the 21 per cent it received in February’s election.
There is encouraging news for the Green Party also in the party support figures, which sees the Greens up to 12 per cent, while Sinn Féin is at 25 per cent, just above its general election performance.
The news for Fianna Fáil is considerably less encouraging – the party’s support is at just 14 per cent. Observers may think it ironic that as Varadkar prepares to leave the taoiseach’s office, his numbers have never been higher, while as Micheál Martin prepares to enter it – if the government is indeed formed – his party’s numbers have not been so low since back in 2011 when he took over the sinking ship and somehow plugged the leaks.
Labour hardly registers in this poll – its support is at just two per cent – while the Social Democrats are also at two per cent. Aontú is at one per cent. Support for People Before Profit-Solidarity is at less than one per cent, while Independents and others are at seven per cent.
But put aside the party support numbers: even if there is an election, they are likely to change sharply. Today’s poll has some interesting things to say about the proposed coalition between Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, on which members of those parties will shortly vote.
There is not much enthusiasm, it seems, for the arrangement. Asked about three options – this proposed coalition, another (unspecified) combination or a general election – the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael-Green combination enjoys the most support; but only just. It’s favoured by 36 per cent of voters, while 27 per cent prefer a different coalition and one-third of voters say they would like another general election.
However, the voters have had their say. It is the party members that now must decide if the new coalition will fly. And if the parties’ members take their lead from the parties’ voters, they will back the deal.
Unsurprisingly, clear majorities of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil voters are in favour of the coalition. But almost half of Green voters (48 per cent) also back the deal, with 30 per cent favouring a different coalition and 21 per cent choosing another election.
On the face of it, that suggests a steep mountain to climb for Eamon Ryan in securing the two-thirds majority he needs. But when voters are asked specifically about what the Green Party should do, they are pretty clear: get yourselves into government.
Almost half of voters (48 per cent) say the Green Party should “make the best deal it can and form a government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil”. A further 18 per cent believe the party should “only enter government . . . if all its demands on climate action are met” – a requirement its TDs certainly seem to believe has been met. Just 28 per cent of voters say the Greens should not form a government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil “under any circumstances”.
When you look at the breakdown of this question by party supporters, the picture is even clearer: 31 per cent of Green voters want the party to do the best deal it can; a further 61 per cent say they should enter government if the climate demands are met.
In other words, if you believe that the programme for government meets the Greens’ requirements, there is an overwhelming majority of more than 90 per cent of Green voters in favour of entering government. This may be the most important message of the poll.
