Today will be an important, and perhaps decisive, day in the process of forming the next government.

Unless things change drastically in the next few hours, a taoiseach will not be elected nor a government approved by the Dáil. But by the end of the day we should be a lot closer to knowing what the outcome of this long-running saga will be.

Last night, Fianna Fail leader Micheál Martin was canvassing for votes among the 15 Independent TDs who have been in and out of negotiations with both his party and with Fine Gael over recent weeks.

But as all the papers report this morning, he was also telling them that today will be their last opportunity to vote for him. If Martin cannot establish a lead over Kenny, then he will give up on his attempts to form a minority government.

Without Fine Gael's assent – and it has not been forthcoming so far – that was impossible anyway. But if that is what transpires today, it will put all the focus squarely on Enda Kenny. He will have to demonstrate that he can form a government – by showing some momentum in his favour towards that goal – or there will be another election.

Sarah Bardon and Fiach Kelly have the full story here, and Fiach's analysis inside the paper is here.

It’s “the endgame of the endgame”, he reckons.

Martin’s chances of getting his nose ahead of Kenny seem slim enough. Last time out, the Fianna Fail leader was eight votes behind Kenny, 51 to 43. To tie things up, he would need to beat Kenny among the Independents by 11 to 4. All the papers say that it seems unlikely.

As we report this morning, many of the Independents seem likely to sit on their hands when the vote is called. Again.

In the Independent, Kevin Doyle describes it as "the ultimate gamble by Micheál Martin – 'vote for me or be stuck with Kenny'". Yesterday the Indo published a coruscating piece by editor Fionnan Sheehan that asserted the Fine Gael leader was now the biggest impediment to the formation of a government.

Kenny knows that if he fails to bring Fine Gael back to government in the coming weeks, it’s the end of his leadership.

The stickability test

Martin’s move last night is reflective of a growing frustration with the Independents.

There is an ever-present fear in both the big parties that the Independent TDs are not sufficiently serious about actually doing a deal with them that would stick through the inevitable vicissitudes of life in government.

They might want to be in government, goes the argument, but are they actually capable of it?

The big party honchos read the reports of the blood-curdling threats of industrial action emanating from the Garda conferences on Tuesday and wondered: Are the Independents really going to hold the line if the gardaí are demonstrating at their doors?

According to one outgoing Minister: “I’d welcome the gardaí if they came protesting. It might keep the water protesters away.”

Privately, the Taoiseach has always entertained some scepticism about the Independents' sticking power. That's why he has never let up trying to convince Labour to rejoin him in government. Depending on how he gets on with the Independents today, those urgings may become more urgent.

Would Labour refuse to back Kenny if it became clear that such a choice would mean another election? It may yet come down to that.

Ultimately, Kenny must accomplish two things: He must agree a framework under which Fianna Fail will co-operate with a minority government (here's my piece on how that might work), and then he must get the support of at least seven more TDs to give him the crucial 58 votes that makes a majority if Fianna Fail abstain.

After today we should know where he stands on both of these.

Could a general election happen after today? Nobody wants it, least of all the Independents. The odds are still – just about – that the framework will be agreed with Fianna Fail, and a deal supported by enough Independents to give Enda Kenny a makeshift majority with Fianna Fail abstention.

But with tension high and tempers frayed after weeks of fruitless negotiations, it’s a precarious business, the whole thing. And in politics, as in life, lots of things happen by accident.