The Minister with responsibility for primary care has said there is no evidence that doctors’ surgeries will be overwhelmed by patients once free GP visits become universal after 2016.

Minister of State at the Department of Health Alex White said yesterday some very detailed modelling had been done by health economists in Trinity College Dublin on the impact free GP care would have on the rate of visits to surgeries.

“[This shows] there is likely to be a small, modest increase. It will be nothing like the kind of massive increase that people are suggesting,” he said.

“A part of the debate on free GP cards is that there would be a considerable increase in visitation. I do not think it will be anything like the big dramatic increase that has been suggested,” said Mr White.

He downplayed the suggestion the Government would be introducing a nominal fee of €5 or €10 for GP care.

He emphasised that that option had not even formed part of the discussions in Ireland on free surgery visits to date.

He said when attending a workshop on health at the Labour Party conference last weekend, he simply described some of the models used in other EU countries that come under the umbrella of "free GP care".

"I simply described France and Sweden, where there is a very, very small nominal charge of €5 or €10 [to act as a disincentive to too many visits]."

Mr White’s reference to modelling suggests the Department of Health will argue that an increase in visits will be a relatively minor component once the change occurs.

The Government announced in October’s budget that free GP care would be initially offered to children under six (at a full-year cost of €37 million). It has been proposed to pay GPs capitation fees.

A report by an expert group on resource allocation in the health sector in 2010 estimated the cost of extending free GP care to the entire population at about €390 million.