What a difference a few million vaccines makes.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin’s Government was in crisis in the first quarter of the year after a massive post-Christmas surge in Covid-19 cases and a slow start to the State’s vaccination programme.
His party, Fianna Fáil, was languishing in the low teens in opinion polls, and there were constant rumblings about Martin’s leadership from a cohort of disaffected TDs. A broader group had also not unreasonably been worried about the future of the party and contemplating life beyond Martin’s decade-long tenure.
But now, with the vaccine rollout making steady progress and a feel-good factor as restrictions ease – notwithstanding the Delta variant posing a threat to the next phase – Martin is enjoying something of a reprieve from internal sniping.
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Fianna Fáil’s support had recovered to 20 per cent in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll and senior party figures are calling for a focus on delivering in Government in a drive to catch up to Sinn Féin and Fine Gael.
Even some of Martin’s strongest critics admit that the leadership issue has simmered down.
“If there’s talk about anything it’s just ‘get on with the job’,” one TD said.
That does not mean that the strong views on the matter have vanished, with another TD insisting that if Martin leads Fianna Fáil into the next election – as he has said he intends to do – “we’ll get destroyed”. Martin, the TD contends, is “too long there” and won’t give the party “the X-factor we need”.
Another says the rumblings are likely to begin again in the middle of next year as Martin approaches the end of his tenure as Taoiseach. He and Tánaiste Leo Varadkar are due to switch roles in December 2022 under the coalition deal.
“He’ll have to step down when his term as Taoiseach is up. If he doesn’t there’ll be a move to take him down,” the TD claims, suggesting that Martin knows this himself so it “won’t come to that”.
Some Fianna Fáil Oireachtas members are of a view that the switchover would be the “natural end point” for Martin’s time as leader. One TD claimed “nobody expects him to go beyond his term as Taoiseach”.
Detractors
However, some of the chatter about the issue is dismissed as being driven by TDs who lost out on ministerial office. Martin has never been one to pay too much attention to the detractors in his party – with criticisms from the likes of Marc MacSharry and John McGuinness routinely batted off at parliamentary party meetings.
This Government had a challenging start with the departure of two ministers for agriculture – Barry Cowen and Dara Calleary – in quick succession and having to impose Covid-19 lockdowns. There are few who still think the reopening of the country late last year, for what Martin said would be a “meaningful” Christmas, was a good idea given the avalanche of Covid-19 cases that followed.
However, Fianna Fáil politicians point to the success of the vaccination programme and the fact that children were kept in education – including facilitating two years of Leaving Certs during a pandemic – as key achievements.
They also talk up Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien’s legislation on affordable housing and the Land Development Agency – both much criticised by the Opposition – as measures that should bear fruit in easing the housing crisis.
Martin, meanwhile, appears to have to have found his stride as Taoiseach in recent months, with colleagues like O’Brien saying he is “comfortable and authoritative” in the role. Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath says Martin has shown “excellent leadership”.
Public satisfaction with his leadership increased by seven points in this month’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll to 49 per cent – higher than Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald (42 per cent) and closing in on Varadkar’s 56 per cent. Seven out of 10 respondents also said the Government was doing a “good job” in handling the pandemic.
“I certainly believe the Taoiseach has come into his own in the past six months – especially after Christmas when we had to take some really tough decisions,” said Minister for State Mary Butler, noting the improved poll numbers.
She said with many people back in work and able to do things like go to the cinema again, “of course people are going to feel more confident in what the Government are doing.”
Looking to the future, Butler says: “Anyone who would write off Fianna Fáil would be very very foolish”.
She says she expects Martin to become Tánaiste when the Taoiseach’s office passes over to Fine Gael, and that he has her “100 per cent” support if he does lead Fianna Fáil into the next election.
Portfolios
The party’s efforts to build support ahead of that election are perhaps hindered by the fact that Fianna Fáil holds three of the more difficult Government portfolios, with Stephen Donnelly in health, O’Brien in housing and Norma Foley in education. Many question the wisdom of taking on those briefs, but delivering in them is seen as key to restoring Fianna Fáil’s electoral fortunes.
All of the Fianna Fáil politicians who spoke to The Irish Times on or off the record identified making progress on housing as being key to restoring support for the party.
O’Brien said his party did not shirk responsibility and took on the housing challenge. He said he was “acutely aware of the expectations that are there”. He insists a “decent start” has been made on housing and “now it’s about delivery”.
His affordable housing plan has been criticised for including a shared equity scheme, but O’Brien says “I’ve stuck to my guns because I believe what we’re doing is going to work”.
Construction has been hit by Covid-19 shutdowns and the Minister is currently working on the Housing for All plan, which will have new targets for housing delivery. Homeless figures remain “too high”. but O’Brien noted that the numbers are down 20 per cent over 22 months.
More broadly, O’Brien said he was confident that the public will recognise that Fianna Fáil “can make a very significant positive difference for the country”.
McGrath said the Government was “in crisis management mode” for its first year due to Covid-19, a challenge he believed it had “managed well and responded to in an appropriate way”.
None of those tipped to replace Martin – McGrath and O’Brien included – appear to be ready to move against him any time soon. One TD listed the two Ministers, Dublin Bay South TD Jim O’Callaghan and Foley as being among potential successors, but said they have been mooted “not for a heave but for the future”.
McGrath said he did not think the leadership was “something we need to be talking about right now”. It will arise “at some point down the line”, and that he has “consistently” said he will make his position clear “when the time comes”.
He said Martin has his “full support” to lead Fianna Fáil into the next election, and believes his constituency mate will have the opportunity to do so.
McGrath says Fianna Fáil would be better served focusing on tackling housing, health and climate change challenges and bringing about economic recover – the issues the public will judge his party on.
“They don’t want a running soap opera between now and December of next year on who will be leading Fianna Fáil,” he says.
O’Brien added: “Our leader is Micheál Martin, he’s the Taoiseach. He’ll be leading us into the next general election.”
Leading contender
O’Callaghan is in an awkward spot when commenting on the subject given his name is most frequently mentioned as the leading contender to replace Martin.
He said that after a “challenging start” Fianna Fáil is performing well in Government and “beginning to impose our influence on housing”.
“In order for us to succeed in Government that influence must dominate the housing debate during the next year.”
He should know this better than anyone as the party’s director of elections for the Dublin Bay South byelection. Housing has dominated the debate there, and the party’s candidate, Cllr Deirdre Conroy, has struggled to have her voice heard amid efforts by Fine Gael and Sinn Féin to portray the campaign as a two-horse race between them.
O’Callaghan expressed hope that that the beginning of a rise for Fianna Fáil in the polls would give the party more self-confidence.
On the leadership issue, O’Callaghan’s insistence that there is “no vacancy at present” is reminiscent of what used to be said by Fine Gael TDs about Enda Kenny before he signalled his intention to step down as party leader.
“History teaches us that leaders are weakened when they announce a date of departure that is not immediate,” he says.
In political terms the next general election is some distance away, with a changeover at the top of Government due to happen during that period.
Timing
One veteran TD said trying to predict the timing of any leadership change is “impossible”, quoting the Harold Macmillan truism about politics of “events dear boy, events”.
Any number of issues could arise in the coming years – another wave of Covid, a return to the more routine crises in health or failure to meet housing targets that could see an end to Martin’s tenure.
Conversely, successes in these areas could bolster his position and see his party return to the electoral success it craves.
One thing is for sure, those vaccines have been a shot in the arm for Martin’s leadership.
