Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness may have been able to present a positive united front to the world at the Ryder Cup in Scotland at the weekend, but back home politics once again is wedged in the bunker.
There are so many issues that could bring Stormont toppling down – with welfare reform the most pressing. That’s why London and Dublin are taking another punt on all -party talks. The deadline is pre-Christmas. Thereafter politicians will be in campaigning mode ahead of next May’s British general election.
Most pundits quite reasonably would predict that these talks – just like the negotiations on the so-called Haass issues of parades, the past and flags 12 months ago – will end in failure. But as one Irish diplomat was wont to say in similar times of crisis: “We have the duty of hope.”
It could be a long agenda: parades, the past, flags, welfare reform, downsizing Stormont, the Irish language, the British National Crime Agency, North-South co-operation and the Maze prison site. And maybe more. Realistically only so much can be achieved in the limited opportunity that is ahead, so the main focus is likely to be on the past, parades and flags, and welfare reform.
Last New Year’s Eve morning, after months of talks, US diplomat Dr Richard Haass produced a blueprint for how the three issues could be addressed. The unionist parties rejected these proposals on rather flimsy grounds.
But what Dr Haass certainly did was create a solid framework and it should not be beyond the wit of the politicians, with some architectural fine-tuning, to complete the job.
The main point here is that there is no absolute solution to these problems: at most, politicians can demonstrate some goodwill and promote positive ideas so that progress can be made. But breaking free from political stasis requires political will and strong leadership.
Under threat
Last week we had signs that the leadership of DUP leader and First Minister Peter Robinson was under threat after he dropped Paisley loyalist Edwin Poots as health minister. Poots, with breathtaking disingenuousness, responded by saying that it was “public knowledge” that Robinson planned to quit politics before the 2016 Assembly elections and possibly even within “months”.
Poots suggested that Robinson said as much in a Belfast Telegraph interview when he had said no such thing. It was the old Lyndon B Johnson trick of saying something untrue about an opponent, but of having the pleasure of forcing him to deny it – which Robinson duly did.
And in so doing he referred to “puffed up” people within the DUP with the strategic vision of “lemmings”.
He thus publicly confirmed for the first time what has been speculated upon for months now – that yes there are divisions within his party.
The bounce ultimately was in Robinson’s favour. The overwhelming number of DUP MPs and Assembly members like a flock of starlings started tweeting their support for their leader.
So, for the moment, Robinson appears to be back in command and capable of doing business. But for politics to crack on he needs a partner to do business with, and that has to be Sinn Féin.
Gerry Adams, more so than Martin McGuinness, is pushing the Sinn Féin agenda here. He has insisted Sinn Féin will not sign up to welfare change regardless of the budgetary pressures that this is putting on Executive Ministers.
The DUP contends that Adams and Sinn Féin are opposing welfare reform because of their 2016 Irish general election ambitions: that if they accepted the welfare changes they would be accused of double-standards by supporting austerity in the North but opposing it in the South.
Because of that rejection the British treasury is imposing financial penalties that are biting – £13 million so far, £87 million up to March next year, £114 million in the following financial year and, according to the DUP finance minister Simon Hamilton, more than £200 million annually thereafter. Already departmental budgets are taking big hits to meet the Westminster fines and there is also talk of redundancies in the public and civil services.
Digging in heels
Robinson is probably correct when he says that the Northern Executive can’t survive these pressures. Yet Gerry Adams continues to dig in his heels. Last week the Sinn Féin president in New York and West Belfast MP Paul Maskey at the British Labour Party conference indicated they were prepared to precipitate the collapse of the Northern Executive and fresh Assembly elections over the Sinn Féin stance on welfare. But here another old question has to be asked: elections to what? Why would Theresa Villiers call elections to the same old stalemate and political paralysis?
Is it not more likely it would be back to direct rule until politicians came to their senses? Perhaps Sinn Féin could live with that, especially if it means a stronger role for Dublin in the affairs of Northern Ireland? But equally it would provide ammunition for Sinn Féin’s political opponents in the South: how could Sinn Féin be trusted in Government in the Republic if it couldn’t maintain government in the North?
Another factor here is that if devolution falls, so would the opportunity for those promised extra power to be devolved to Stormont in the wake of the Scottish referendum result. The odds remain against the talks succeeding. But as part of that “duty of hope” it must also be pointed out that everybody, including Sinn Féin, has something to lose if Stormont collapses. So, let’s not abandon all hope. Maybe political self-interest will yet save the day.
Gerry Moriarty is Northern Editor
