Eurostat, the European Union's statistical service in Luxembourg, will decide if Ireland may be subdivided for structural funding purposes. It guards its independence from member-states and the Commission jealously, but few here expect major problems for the Government from this quarter.

The decision, the Commission says, is straightforward, based on a purely objective analysis into which political considerations are not supposed to enter. The analysis will be based on new figures for the 1994-1998 reference period which became available last night for the first time. The formula concerned is that used to calculate regional "gross value added" (GVA), the regional equivalent of gross domestic product, and a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in a region, priced at the value which producers receive, plus any subsidies receivable as a consequence of the production or sale, minus any taxes payable as a result of their production or sale.

Eurostat will then consider whether the figures justify drawing a statistical distinction between the levels of economic development in the two parts of the State. This is a more subjective operation and, if anything is going to cause problems, this is likely to be it.

But there is strong evidence to support the Government case, not only of clear differences in relative wealth between the two proposed regions in GVA terms, but of different patterns of economic and employment growth in recent years, with the east significantly outperforming the west.

Between 1991 and 1995, for example, per-capita wealth in Dublin, the mid-west and the south-west grew by some 40 per cent, while in the Border, midlands and west the growth was 10 percentage points less. Changes in employment mirror the same tendency, with the exception of the midlands which benefited from the overflow effect from Dublin.

Another problem arises from the need to make a distinct case for taking Kerry and Clare out of their current sub-regions, both of which are performing well above the 75 per cent Objective 1 ceiling. Eurostat could insist on accepting the regionalisation package without the latter.