The Government will next week begin what is likely to be a long and uncertain road towards what most of its members hope will be an easing of Ireland’s strict constitutional ban on abortion.

It is a path fraught with political risk and there is no certainty that any sort of a destination will be reached by this administration. The Government’s makeshift majority existence is precarious enough without an abortion referendum coming down the tracks.

First step

Nonetheless, the steps that will now be taken are clear. A citizens’ assembly will be set up in the coming months – the deadline in the programme for government is the beginning of November, though it will probably happen before then.

The assembly’s first priority will be to address the abortion issue. Then, once the assembly finishes its work, the issue will most likely pass to a specially constituted Oireachtas committee for consideration.

Only then will the Government and Dáil decide on whether to hold a referendum to amend or delete the existing constitutional ban, and what should replace it. The process may be measured in years, rather than months.

The Taoiseach is on record as hoping the process can reach a consensus on what, if anything, should replace the 1983 Eighth Amendment which, as article 40.3.3 of the Constitution, guarantees the equal right to life of the mother and the unborn.

It is this strict guarantee for the foetus that means any extension of abortion rights in the case of fatal foetal conditions would first require a change to the wording of that article, according to advice the Attorney General gave the last government.

If there is a possibility the baby can be born alive – even if the likelihood is that it will die soon afterwards – the constitutional protection of its right to life “is engaged”, as Attorney General Máire Whelan advised the Fine Gael-Labour coalition.

The other potential change in the law most often cited by politicians – that is, allowing abortion in cases of rape – falls even more obviously foul of the constitutional protections.

Enda Kenny’s desire for consensus is the natural inclination of a politician, albeit one who has presided over the constitutional and legislative recognition of significant social change in the last five years. Still, it is a highly optimistic one.

Extreme certainty

Past abortion debates have been dominated and defined by the certainty of the extremes on either side.

With activist groups on both sides gearing up for another campaign, there seems little prospect it will be any different the next time.

What is different is that the middle ground has shifted on abortion, certainly in the years since the 1983 referendum. Given the remarkable changes in Irish society, it would be remarkable if public attitudes had not changed as well.

Loosening the law

But to what extent? Both sides commission and cite opinion polls for the purposes of advocacy rather than information. But a reading of all the polls seems to suggest there is probably broad support for a loosening of the law on abortion. However, that does not appear to extend to endorsing a British-style regime.

The best summary seems to be that Ireland in 2016 is more pro-choice than its laws, but quite anti-abortion by international standards.