When asked what Fine Gael’s message would be for the autumn, a party strategist thought for a moment before replying, wryly: “Let’s keep the recovery going.”
As anybody who followed the 2016 general election will know, that slogan has already been taken, and the lead party in Government is unlikely to return to it anytime soon.
Opposition parties, the media and, ultimately, the electorate hammered Fine Gael for it three years ago. The economic growth on paper was not trickling down to the ordinary voter, who was still struggling to find work or to make ends meet.
The point the strategist was making this week, though, was that it would be perfectly suited as a slogan in late 2019.
“That came 3½ years too early. Look, we are never going to use it. But if you look at the situation now where we have virtually full employment and there is strong economic growth, that is the kind of message we would want to send out. Fine Gael is the only party that can responsibly manage us through the choppy waters of Brexit, while protecting the economy.”
At this moment, the storm clouds of a no-deal Brexit are gathering on the horizon. It will dominate politics in the new Dáil term that begins in September.
But as the parties return after the summer recess, there are also domestic considerations. It’s a little akin to Kilkenny legend Dick O’Hara winning an All-Ireland hurling medal on Sunday afternoon and heading straight back to Thomastown to milk the cows, because nobody else could do them.
The parties also need to focus on non-Brexit issues such as the budget, health, housing, broadband and climate action and the not inconsiderable matters of four byelections and a general election occurring in relatively short order.
The immediate emphasis will be on the four upcoming byelections which will serve as dress rehearsals for the main event
Within Fine Gael, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe is the key figure. He might have no choice but to draft his October budget for a hard Brexit, which will mean no latitude and little spending.
The other significant message from the June elections was that climate change is now a huge issue. Expect more emphasis on this, including increases in carbon tax and concrete steps on the climate action plan. Fine Gael will also play the latest jobs figures and try to improve public perception of its performance in problem areas: namely health spending, broadband and its laggard image on climate change.
Like other parties, the immediate emphasis will be on the four upcoming byelections which will serve as dress rehearsals for the main event.
Donohoe has also assumed the director of organisation role once played by Phil Hogan. Already he has wielded the axe, dropping Ray Butler in Meath West and Julie O’Leary in Cork North Central, as well as choosing Frankie Feighan over John Perry in Sligo-Leitrim.
While nominally the main Opposition party, Fianna Fáil’s journey through this 32nd Dáíl term has been a three-legged race, its ankle tied to Fine Gael’s for the duration.
From Fianna Fáil’s perspective, it is writ that Brexit will determine the budget and also the timing of the next election.
“Our focus politically will be on how well or badly the Government is delivering services,” says a senior FF strategist. “On education, social welfare, housing, health, broadband.” There will also be a stronger than ever focus on climate change.
“When Paschal Donohoe is delivering the budget and if he finds a hidden stack of money, like the corporation tax windfall last year, we have to ensure it is used responsibly. Is the country adequately prepared for Brexit? In agrifood and customs? What happens in November and December when companies cannot maintain their employee levels?” asked the strategist.
What can Sinn Féin hope for?
Sinn Féin had a bruising encounter in the May elections. Faced with potential seat losses, the party’s main aim is to consolidate by limiting seat losses.
Party leader Mary Lou McDonald reshuffled her front bench, partly in the light of the May results. There was a promotion for Imelda Munster and David Cullinane was put into the climate-change portfolio, which is now a big focus for the party. Though it won’t publicly say as much, it is clear it has moved its campaign for a Border poll to a medium-term, rather than short-term, priority.
Housing, broadband delivery, health, are also big issues. The Greens’ success in the May elections has escalated climate change as an issue for all parties. When one talks to Labour, Fianna Fáil, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and Sinn Féin, they all mention this issue and also their emphasis on a “just transition”.
A just transition, unsurprisingly, is high on the Green Party’s agenda. It has a Private Members’ Bill tabled for the first week of the Dáil and is also going to put a huge emphasis on forestry.
“The idea is there are 120,000 farmers and if each of them were to plant one hectare of native woods over the next five years on pockets of land, it would make a huge difference. It would give better support to farmers than doling out money to the beef industry, with all the difficulties that has,” said a party source.
The third big issue for the Greens is what it calls the Green New Deal, which would look at financial gains from green investment in forestry, transport, insulation and renewable energy.
Senator Kevin Humphreys of Labour also mentions just transition. Housing, health and transport will also feature heavily in his party’s autumn priorities.
For the Social Democrats, Sláintecare implementation is a priority issue, as is childcare and the elderly, climate change as well insurance premium costs.
People Before Profit is keen to build up a left alliance. Its Dún Laoghaire TD Richard Boyd-Barrett has focused on four policy areas: a living wage; a housing movement; climate change; and a voting pact for the byelections, which will focus minds in all the parties.
