So what happens after Level 5?
Yep, it was the classic morning after the night before yesterday, as the implications of the new Level 5 restrictions sunk in. Politicians reported a mixture of anger and stoicism from their constituencies, and there were mutterings from TDs about the spectacular volte-face by Government on this matter. Those criticisms may become more vocal at parliamentary party meetings this evening.
Our two main stories reflect the very fast escalation of cases. Logistically, you can see how difficult it has been for the HSE tracing operation. They geared up in March and April and trained hundreds of people. But with lockdown most positive cases had a tiny number of contacts. That changed from the summer, but the case numbers were low. The number of tracers was pared back to the low hundreds.
And then, wham – exponential growth happened, and the average number of close contacts for each confirmed case is five. As we report, the tracing operation was overwhelmed over a three-day period at the weekend and did not have enough personnel to contact the close contacts of between 2,000 and 2,500 people. The HSE decided to move on and has taken the unprecedented step of asking the confirmed cases from those three days to text their close contacts.
You know – instinctively – that not all of them will dutifully do that, feeling more than a modicum of guilt at having to tell a close contact they may have passed the virus on to them.
The second element to the report is also interesting. The letter from Nphet written by Dr Tony Holohan suggests the reproduction rate will fall to 0.5 at the end of the six weeks but then states the case numbers will rise from 300 per day in January. That has stoked fears within the Government that another lockdown may be sought in spring.
Jack Horgan-Jones reported on the contents of the letter yesterday.
One of the constant refrains from TDs and Ministers yesterday was the lack of a long-term strategy to live with Covid-19 in the absence of a vaccine. Most complained about a pattern of bouncing in and out of lockdown and the material and psychological consequences it would have.
Fines system introduced for Covid law breaches
Miracles do happen. When this reporter asked Minister for Justice Helen McEntee when graduated fines would be introduced for breaching Covid-19 laws, the response was ‘not imminently’ and that it was going to take some time as legislation would be required.
Hey presto, quicker than Lewis Hamilton exiting a pit stop, the draft legislation was published by Cabinet last night after being brought to an incorporeal meeting by McEntee. It has an array of eye-watering fines for transgressors.
Jennifer Bray and Conor Gallagher have the story here.
So those who hold house parties will face stiff fines of €1,000 or up to one month imprisonment on first offence, rising to €2,500 or up to six months imprisonment or both for a third offence.
The sanctions are big enough to act as a deterrent, and the occupier of the house will be assumed to be the event organiser. There will also be fines of €60 for people who breach the 5km-from-home limit.
There’s been a bit of chopping and changing. The five-level plan has become meaningless. Yesterday, a few (good) amendments were made – loosening the definition of a social bubble for those who live alone or who are single parents, and increasing the number of people allowed at a funeral to 25.
The Government can’t keep returning to the broad-brush-stroke levels in the new year because by then they will no longer be fit for purpose.
For example, hotels are effectively closed but can cater for pre-booked weddings of up to 25 people. But it’s not worth it for a hotelier to open the hotel for a party of 25 people as it would cost too much.
There has been blowback, as we report.
One TD suggested a curfew, as has been introduced in several European cities (they don’t go down well with the public, but they are effective). That would need to be very publicly policed and would be another way of cutting down on house parties (and alcohol consumption away from home).
That same TD was worried the school run twice a day would give too many people cover for making non-essential journeys. But that’s a risk that will have to be run with keeping schools open. I suspect traffic will lighten considerably towards the end of the week.
It is not as restrictive as March and April, and most people will comply with the 5km rule. And it will bring the ‘R’ number down – there is no doubt about it. But at what cost? And how often can we keep returning to lockdown before this virus begins to slip away?
Best Reads
Miriam Lord wipes the floor (and the seats) with all comers in a superb column.
And Paul Cullen does not hold back in an excellent think piece where he questions the rationale of Level 5, the prospect of rolling in and out of lockdowns, and politicians taking their eye off the ball during the summer. Another must read.
Marie O'Halloran writes about the Taoiseach promising support for Cork businesses affected by flooding yesterday.
The front page of the Irish Examiner is also worth having a look at –with graphic photographic evidence of recurrent floods going back to 2001 in this area of Cork City.
It is also worth reading Sarah Burns's guide to life under Level 5.
Conor Pope has a great guide to 100 online Irish retailers for Christmas shopping. Do support them and the others he will add to the website over the next month.
Playbook
Dáil
Leader’s Questions is at midday. The main debate will be around the Bill to set up the Commission of Investigation into Mother and Baby Homes. Opposition TDs complained bitterly yesterday that not enough time was allotted to the legislation.
The Seanad is not sitting today.
Committees
The Joint Committee on European Union Affairs is discussing the controversial British Internal Markets Bill with the House of Lords Committee on the matter (9am).
Eamon Ryan and Hildegarde Naughton are before the Transport Committee to talk about the revised estimates for the Department of Transport. (11.30am).
The Finance Committee will be engaging with the governor of the Central Bank.
The Committee on Media and Tourism will be hearing from the Tourism Recovery Taskforce on its assessment of what is needed for the hospitality and tourism sector to overcome the impact of Covid-19.
The PAC is examining the appropriation accounts of the Department of Education.
There are Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael parliamentary party meetings being held later this evening.
