The image of Enda Kenny running from reporters on the RTÉ nine o'clock news sent a shiver through his Fine Gael party on Monday.
Their leader was asked if he was in favour of a public inquiry into the latest twist in the Garda whistleblower controversy. He replied that he would talk to his Fianna Fáil counterpart Micheál Martin about the matter.
It was not news to people in Fine Gael that Martin wears the pants in the relationship between the parties. But it came as a surprise that the Taoiseach would publicly acknowledge his lack of authority in this minority administration.
That comment changed things in Fine Gael, and now some of Kenny’s closest allies accept his race is almost run.
A difficulty is that if Kenny falls, so to do Michael Noonan and Frances Fitzgerald. The party would not just lose a leader, but a generation.
“The mood has shifted significantly, you can sense it in the parliamentary party,” said one TD. “The Taoiseach has served the party well for over a decade but his time is over. He is Micheál’s lapdog now.”
Stand aside
Fine Gael had seemed willing to let Kenny choose when he would stand aside, but much has changed in the last five days.
There were revelations surrounding an alleged smear campaign against Sgt Maurice McCabe. Then conflicting accounts about who knew about these and when. Then an opinion poll showing Fine Gael trailing Fianna Fáil, the party it needs the help of to stay in Government. Then more conflicting timelines.
If Kenny’s chairmanship is his biggest asset, the ongoing Cabinet dispute over McCabe and the Tusla file calls that ability into focus.
A senior figure described the predicament Fine Gael finds itself in as “the biggest shit storm”.
“We are at 21 per cent [in the polls], all we need is a corpse,” they said.
Some say it will be a matter of weeks before Kenny is cut loose. Others are more careful. His St Patrick’s Day visit to Donald Trump will go ahead, but beyond that nothing is certain.
Given the precarious position of the Taoiseach, a call from the young TD Noel Rock for a clear exit strategy should have been welcome. Instead Rock was castigated by colleagues for saying publicly what they thought privately, particularly with the threat of an election looming.
Rock was accused of bad judgment but defended his decision. “This was, and is, an issue that needs to be dealt with, and pretending it isn’t an issue, or staying perpetually off the record, does nobody any service.”
In one way the Rock situation sums up the divide that shapes Fine Gael. The party ranks include Kenny loyalists, a middle-ground Simon Coveney would rely on to make him leader, and fanatics keen to catapult Leo Varadkar further into the limelight.
Leadership ambitions
Coveney's leadership ambitions took a hit last week when his party colleague, Carlow-Kilkenny TD John Paul Phelan, called him a liar after changes to constituency boundaries in his area were proposed. It was a blow to Coveney, albeit from someone seen as favouring Varadkar. But a potential leader being called a liar from inside the party ranks is far from ideal.
Coveney’s leadership prospects should not be written off, even if some want to see a coronation for Varadkar.
One Minister said a leadership contest would “only serve to divide and conquer and believe me that is the last thing we need”.
Leadership has been a topic of conversation among Fine Gael TDs for some time, but there is a recurring problem – somebody has to make a move if it is to change.
Varadkar is reluctant to, and is already viewed as too eager by some. Coveney does not lack the ambition, but the ruthlessness to push his party leader aside may not be there.
The firing of the pistol to formally start this race will likely fall to a Minister of State or a Kenny loyalist who decided enough is enough.
An election could open new wounds for Fine Gael. Party policy is unclear after being shaped by its arrangement with Independent TDs and confidence arrangement with Fianna Fáil.
Even so, party headquarters began polling various constituencies last weekend. The preparations for the post-Enda era are under way.
