A rule of thumb for a party that takes a walloping in an election is that it takes two full political cycles (essentially a decade) to recover substantially. An important adjunct to that is after two or three years it will have to show some progress. If a party is flatlining or regressing in second-tier elections, it’s on the road to nowhere.
If we put the Labour Party to the test it’s difficult to say if this theory holds at this particular time.
In a period of continuing electoral instability, the nature of our politics is characterised more by churn than loyalty. Sure Labour U-turned on core policies in 2011. But in other areas it acted selflessly and took a bullet for the team. And for that it received no thanks in 2016. The opposite in fact.
So where is Labour now? As the party’s two-day parliamentary party think-in started in Cork on Sunday, there are definite signs of recovery. After an uncertain first year – and several damaging resignations by councillors – party leader Brendan Howlin is now settled and has slotted comfortably into the role. He was relaxed enough on Sunday to use a word not heard from him since he was minister for public expenditure: “quantum”.
So the mood in Cork among its parliamentarians and new councillors was positive. The party does not have the same difficulties as others, like Sinn Féin, in defining values and what it stands for.
Our trade description is in our name, said Howlin. In other words, standing up for workers. Over the past 18 months the party has focused on representing workers: a living wage, trade union representation, a just transition in climate change and pay equality. This is where the influence of policy director Nat O’Connor, formerly of Tasc (Think Tank for Action on Social Change), is most evident. Its spokespeople, Alan Kelly in particular on Health, Jan O’Sullivan on housing and Seán Sherlock on climate change, have all been to the fore in advancing the party’s agenda.
But if there is recovery, how substantial is it? The acid test is at the polling booth. So far that has been inconclusive. It never really featured in the European elections. Labour had an uneven local election experience. It gained six seats, going from 51 to 57. There was scope for bigger gains but it found recovery stymied by its two rivals: the Green Party, which had a surge, and Social Democrats who posted a respectable performance.
Against that, it made seat gains in regions which were strategically important in terms of the Dáil elections , notably Cork and Waterford.
Thin red lines?
There is little doubt that the party will survive but the question is will it take longer than a decade for it to come in from the cold. Howlin said it will run 30 candidates and its manifesto will feature “red lines” that will lay down conditions for supporting any government.
Another of the casual rules of Irish politics is that parties in recovery mode should stay out of government for at least two elections. That question has not yet been settled in Labour. Most of its Oireachtas members seem to favour some arrangement after the next election.
Howlin was careful to qualify his remarks by saying that the red lines would determine supporting a government, either from within, or without. In the immediate future, there is little hope of majority government in Ireland. So there is the possibility of new imaginative arrangements being brokered to govern the country.
Of course, Labour’s ability to do any of that will be determined by how well they do in the forthcoming elections. They would hope to win at least one of the byelections (Kathleen Lynch in Cork North Central would probably be their biggest hope).
And in a general election, it’s all so tight. The party might struggle to hold Longford-Westmeath where Willie Penrose is retiring and will be in a struggle in Dublin West. Elsewhere, it could be in contention in five or six constituencies. Target constituencies include: Dublin Bay North; Dublin Bay South; Dún Laoghaire; Dublin South Central; Cork North Central; Waterford; and the two Kildare constituencies. The party needs just a handful to get into double figures. But it’s a big ask.
In each it will be touch and go, a probable scrap for the last seat.
