We are reminded of one of the great put-downs of Irish politics when looking at the findings of this morning's Irish Times opinion poll.
It was made by Fine Gael TD (and Galway football legend) John Donnellan about then Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes: “If it was raining soup, he would be holding a fork.”
Some parties and politicians just can’t cop a break. The latest opinion poll shows that political support has moved slightly out of the holding pattern it has been in since the summer. There are slight drops and rises.
But despite being the lead party of Government and Taoiseach Micheál Martin supposedly being in a honeymoon period, that status is not reflected in the poll.
The party’s support is at 17 per cent, an increase of 3 per cent. But there is still daylight between it and the party which wants to eclipse it, Sinn Féin, and the party it always edged out over 80 years now enjoys twice the support it does.
Essentially, the general election determined Sinn Féin was the coming party. Its status as the main opposition party has accelerated that trend. The Covid-19 pandemic determined that Fine Gael would get a surge for leading the response to the threat. It has maintained that support level because it has been cohesive, competent and easily identifiable.
Fianna Fáil is the largest party in Irish politics and in government but is in the throes of an identity crisis. That has been compounded by a lousy (and unlucky) start to government.
In the past week, Micheál Martin seems to have finally got to grips with the role of taoiseach and its parliamentary party is beginning to settle. That could explain why it is at 17 per cent rather than 11 per cent. But even then there’s a big battle ahead.
As Pat Leahy points out in our main lead, “approval ratings for the Government and all the main party leaders have fallen as the pandemic takes its toll on the public mood”.
He also points out the Green Party has also seen its support “decimated” since entering Government, falling by eight points to just four per cent since the last poll, conducted in June before the party formed the coalition with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
“The satisfaction rating for Green Party leader Eamon Ryan slumps by 13 points from 40 per cent to 27 per cent,” he says.
Doctors versus politicians
The biggest distraction politically this week was the spectacular fall out between the doctors and the politicians, between Nphet and Cabinet over the State’s alert plan.
Even now, four days after Nphet delivered its fateful advice to move to Level 5, there is still lots of new information filtering out about the circumstances leading up to and following that decision.
It emerged that Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan had told Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly on Sunday morning of his concern, and had then spoken to him after the Nphet meeting. Leo Varadkar said he had rang Holohan on Tuesday night for what was presumably a “clear the air” conversation after his vituperative criticism of Nphet on RTÉ on Monday. No apology. But Varadkar explained he had been really unhappy when he learned of Nphet’s advice on Sunday. So too was Government general secretary Martin Fraser, who also had a meeting with Holohan this week. Holohan himself said yesterday he did not take it personally but added that the numbers now are more worrying than they were on Sunday.
And it also emerged the Taoiseach and Boris Johnson had been in contact over the weekend, to discuss the situation. Here is our latest report on the politics of it.
The new green deal
And just after 100 days, the draft of the Climate Action Bill has been published. To underline its importance, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan was accompanied by the Taoiseach and Tánaiste at the launch.
The Bill will certainly ratchet up the ambition. There will be a five-year carbon budget with specific targets (from late next year, is the expectation) and a beefed-up (excuse the inappropriate adjective) Climate Action Advisory Council. The target will be to reduce emissions by 7 per cent each year and for Ireland to be carbon neutral by 2050.
It’s a very important piece of legislation for the Greens. It’s essentially its main reason for being in government. It’s only a draft. It could take a year before the law is fully enacted and the Carbon Budget becomes real. One disconcerting omission is there doesn’t seem to be any real sanction if the Government fails to meet the targets it sets for itself in the carbon budget.
Still, it's a potential game-changer. Kevin O'Sullivan outlines why here.
Best reads
Pat Leahy'sanalysis of the poll. He writes: "The most obvious finding of the poll is that this Government will not inherit the stratospheric approval ratings that its predecessor enjoyed at the end of its term. Reality check."
Miriam Lord was intrigued by Martin Kenny's truncated effort to broach the unmentionable: the separation of powers between parliament and judiciary. A few great lines including this one: "The likelihood of the Taoiseach acceding to his request was about as likely as Fine Gael junior minister Patrick O'Donovan agreeing to a request from a group of teenagers to go into an off-licence and buy them a slab of Dutch Gold."
Gino Kenny’s Dying with Dignity Bill has made it through to second stage intact, after a Government amendment to refer it to a special committee was defeated. There was a free vote on the amendment for all except Ministers. The amendment was defeated 86 to 65. The Bill itself was then voted on last night, with a free vote for all TDs. It was backed by 81 to 71 votes.
As Marie O'Halloran writes: "Mr Kenny said during debate on the legislation last week that it would be regrettable if the Bill was delayed a further 12 months. He acknowledged that the issue was extremely difficult for everyone."
Playbook
The new president of the European Council Charles Michel pays his first visit to Ireland in the role. He will meet the Taoiseach in Farmleigh. They will discuss ongoing Brexit negotiations, EU coordination on the health and economic impacts of Covid-19, climate action and how to deepen the EU’s relationship with Africa.
In the Dáil the Official Languages (Amendment) Bill 2019 is being brought to the house by Minister of State for the Gaeltacht Jack Chambers. Among the new amendments are several strengthening measures. One of the main new commitments is a commitment that 20 per cent of all recruits to the civil service will be proficient in Ireland by 2030.
The Committee on Budgetary Oversight will hear from Minister for Public Expenditure Micheál McGrath as part of its pre-budgetary scrutiny.
The Public Accounts Committee will be looking at how Nama disposed of Project Nantes loans.
