The last 24 hours in politics have unfolded like a high-stakes game of poker, and we may now have an unexpected election on our hands.
Sinn Féin looked like it was going to ‘check’ yesterday morning. That was, mar dhea, to allow Frances Fitzgerald a “chance” to further clarify clarifications about the infamous email.
By the first nano-second of Fitzgerald’s explanation, we realised that it was all posture from Sinn Féin, and the party was giving it no chance. It was looking for her head but had got an extra 12 hours of coverage out of it.
The upshot, though, was Sinn Féin went “all in” on its confidence motion.
And then attention turned on Fianna Fail. We all knew its cards were very similar to Sinn Féin. It took all afternoon for the party to decide. Privately, most of its TDs and Senators seemed gung-ho.
And then on the Six-One, poker-faced “Lucky Jim” O’Callaghan also threw all the party’s chips on the table. It too was laying down a motion of no confidence.
Now all the focus shifted once again to Fine Gael.
On the face of it, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar is facing a dismal Hobson’s choice.
The confidence-and-supply agreement with Fianna Fail is in tatters. If Frances Fitzgerald remains in place, it means a general election. If the Taoiseach allows her to go, there will be a perception he is weak and had danced to the tune of the Opposition parties, or had sacrificed her in order for him to stay in power.
All week, there has been more commentary on Varadkar’s body language than there was in zoologist Desmond Morris’s celebrated book on human behaviour, The Naked Ape.
Varadkar convened a meeting of his parliamentary party last night. It was short - and, boy, was it decisive.
He wasn’t going to fire Fitzgerald. She wasn’t going to resign. He didn’t want her to resign. The allegations against her did not hold water. He wasn’t going to “throw her under a bus on the basis of trumped-up charges”.
It was brave, perhaps foolhardy. For sure, Varadkar has called the bluff of the other two parties and, yes, he himself is all in.
Can some compromise be reached? Or is a general election inevitable. This morning, the latter looks the most likely. Although in this game the last card, the “river card”, has yet to be turned up.
Is an election likely?
At this stage the chances of an election are very high.
Varadkar’s response has been counterintuitive. When a Minister is embroiled in controversy that stubbornly remains the main story each and every day, and when the Opposition and media are in feeding frenzy mode, the odds are stacked very heavily against survival.
Like many of the big crises in recent Irish political history, this row is a little obscure to everybody save Leinster House politicians and the media who report it.
As scandals go, it was not toxic enough to send the Geiger counters into overdrive.
Fitzgerald’s sin was omission. She forgot about an email. That email disclosed the Garda Commissioner was going to adopt an aggressive strategy towards Maurice McCabe at the commission investigating his claims of corruption. She didn’t really take that on board, say her detractors. She also over-relied on the advice that she had no function in the matter.
But, in fairness, the advice was there in black and white. It did offer her a defence, and the Taoiseach has backed her up to the hilt.
What has been most damaging have been the delays in disclosing documents, in passing on information, as well as the numerous clarifications that have been made.
Politically, Fianna Fáil missed an opportunity last spring when it felt, on the back of the false sexual allegations made against McCabe, it should have tabled a motion of confidence in Fitzgerald.
It knew if Sinn Féin tabled a motion this time, the party would suffer a reputational blow for “bottling it”.
The Taoiseach’s defence of the Tánaiste has kind of wheeled the scrum.
It’s going to be some fun for candidates in January traipsing around housing estates explaining exactly why the election is called. People outside the “bubble” are not engaged with the details and will struggle to understand how it could be the basis of a general election.
It’s hard to gauge how people will react, but if they think the premise for an election was slim, it will rebound on Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil.
What will Sinn Féin do about its leadership? Arrange a swift coronation for Mary Lou? Very likely
It’s a bold move by the Taoiseach, although it’s not a certainty yet. There will be plenty of internal meetings, high-level discussions and dialogue over the next four days.
Right now, it’s hard to see how any of the parties can retreat with any credibility.
