Sinn Féin is posing a renewed challenge to Fianna Fáil as pressure on Independent candidates in Dublin grows and support for the Government – after 18 months of rapid decline – shows tentative signs of recovery. Such shifts in allegiance patterns could change quickly, however, because the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll also shows a level of uncommitted voters, at 35 per cent.

Voter volatility and public disillusionment have become features of politics in recent years. So the Coalition partners will be gratified by a three-point gain in satisfaction with the Government. That approval did not, however, translate into party support where both dropped a point, Fine Gael to 24 per cent and the Labour Party to 9 per cent. In contrast, Sinn Féin added three points to 21 per cent.

Austerity measures have eroded the dominance exhibited by Fine Gael and the Labour Party in the general election. At the top of a revised pecking order, Fianna Fáil leads Sinn Féin in Leinster and in Connacht/Ulster while the parties are neck and neck in Munster. Fine Gael has moved into poll position in Dublin ahead of Sinn Féin and has gained significantly at the expense of Independents. Fianna Fáil has also made headway in the capital, where it has no TDs.

Ministers will be relieved by a three-point rise in the Coalition's satisfaction rating. But it is too early to hang out flags. Two-thirds of voters remain dissatisfied with the way the country is being run although public support has been largely unaffected by the introduction of a property tax, further reductions in public services, and the prospect of future water charges. Sinn Féin's trenchant opposition to these developments in recent months has brought it a three-point gain, while Gerry Adams – approval rating of 33 per cent – emerged as most popular leader. Two points behind, Micheál Martin edged ahead of Enda Kenny, while Eamon Gilmore came in a distant fourth – a price paid by those in the driving seat of an austerity Government.