WITH most political parties displaying evidence that sights are being set and plans are being put in place for next year's general election, party support figures will become increasingly more relevant as the countdown builds over the next 12 to 16 months.
Although mid term figures do not normally provide reliable indicators of the outcome of future elections, a review of the trends since November 1992 indicates a scenario of more than mere passing interest for a number of parties, and the general historical background is not irrelevant in evaluating current party support.
Table A (net support levels) sets out the results of each opinion poll in The Irish Times/MRBI series since the last general election in November 1992.
In this regard, it should be noted that the respective figures in 1995 were used at the time solely as an analysis mechanism for the referendum campaign surveys conducted during last year, and the actual party support levels were not formally published in the conventional format.
The normal questions were asked and the findings were obtained using the same techniques as heretofore. They are included in these tables to provide the necessary continuity and are accurate within the statistical variation of the samples.
A clearer outline of the trends over the three years is evident in the consolidated analysis shown in Table B which sets out the respective yearly average figures, subsequent to the 1992 general election and before this survey.
Fianna Fail
The net support for Fianna Fail at 47 per cent equates with the party's average over the year 1995, and is three to four points above the respective 1993 and 1994 figures. The current level is also eight points above its all time low of 39 per cent in the 1992 general election.
While the trend represents a notable improvement in support over the past three years, relatively recent history has shown that the party has the tendency to lose support at the outset of election campaigns, and 47 per cent cannot be taken as indicative of the likely Fianna Fail first preference figure in the next general election.
Although the party held 45 per cent support at a similar juncture (June 1991) before the 1992 general election, there are at least two reasons why the same drop may not occur in the run up to the next. The first is that the party is in opposition rather than in Government, and the second is that Bertie Ahern has commanded relatively high satisfaction ratings since his election as party leader.
Today's ratings indicate that this trend is continuing.
Fine Gael
Fine Gael supporters and the Taoiseach, John Bruton, have as much or perhaps more reason to be happy with their party's current position and also with Mr Bruton's personal rating as Taoiseach. The party's support level of 26 per cent represents its highest impact for over four years, since December 1991 (also 26 per cent), and is marginally above its 1992 election figure of 24.47 per cent.
For 1993 and 1994, the 20 per cent level of support raised questions among party members, but the increasing satisfaction rating of John Bruton today in his role as Taoiseach is reflected in correspondingly growing support for the party.
That Fine Gael attracted 25 per cent in June 1991 17 months before the 1992 general election and received the same level of first preference votes in the election provides some evidence of long term stability.
Labour
While the performance of the Labour Party in the 1992 election in obtaining 19 per cent of the first preference vote and 20 per cent of seats (33) was unprecedented, the build up to this achievement was even more remarkable.
In five MRBI opinion polls in these columns between February and September 1992, the party averaged 12 per cent impact, and the first indication of real growth in support terms came in the opinion poll of November 9th, four days after the election was called and just two weeks before it was held.
At that stage, the party had 17 per cent support, which indicates that the main growth in attracting the floating vote did not come on stream until the campaign had begun. In other words, there was no evidence throughout 1992 up to September that the party had the potential to deliver in the manner which eventually materialised.
And so to today, where the Labour level of 10 per cent is below its average for each of the past three years, while in each of the last two polls (November 1995), the party attracted 12 per cent and 11 per cent respectively.
The 1995 situation is not dissimilar to that of the pre campaign opinion polls of 1992 and, with 12 to 17 months remaining, and many hearts and minds remaining to be won over before the public is asked to adjudicate.
Progressive Democrats
The leader of the Progressive Democrats, Mary Harney, and party members will be happy with its 7 per cent level of support which is identical to its 1995 average and is above its general election first preference impact of 5 per cent, which converted to a commendable 6 per cent of seats.
An inspection of the party's performance in all Irish Times/MRBI opinion polls over the past seven years indicates a high degree of solidity in support, which has the potential to deliver another satisfactory outcome for the party in the next election.
A further advantage for the party is that Ms Harney has topped the leader satisfaction ratings on almost every occasion since November 1993. Today's outcome is no exception.
Democratic Left and Green Party
Both of these parties are, in broad terms, holding their support levels of the past few years, with Democratic Left in the advantageous position of having some high profile candidates in Government.
Satisfaction Rating
The last comparable survey on which leader satisfaction ratings appeared was September of last year, when Mary Harney shared first position with Bertie Ahern. The current and comparable figures are.