Poll finds opinion is swinging away from Belfast Agreement

Public opinion is swinging against the Belfast Agreement and away from the middle ground which existed when a 71 per cent majority…

Public opinion is swinging against the Belfast Agreement and away from the middle ground which existed when a 71 per cent majority supported the Good Friday deal in the 1998 referendum.

An opinion poll conducted by Queen's University and the Belfast Telegraph revealed that Protestant disenchantment with the agreement has continued to grow. Only 36 of them would vote Yes to the agreement if the referendum was to be rerun now.

Yet, despite obvious unionist disillusionment, some 60 per cent of Protestant respondents still want the agreement to work.

Political sources suggest this is not the contradiction it appears to be. One suggested that what unionists are disenchanted with is not the agreement but its lack of thorough implementation.

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Some 62 per cent of Protestants say they are either "not satisfied" or "not satisfied at all" with parts of the agreement. Topping their grievance list is decommissioning of paramilitary weapons.

These findings seem to endorse the strategy of the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, who continues to support the principles of the accord.

British sources and the SDLP believe unionist unhappiness with the agreement stems not from the deal but rather the way in which the process has been handled.

SDLP leader Mr Mark Durkan said: "The SDLP has made this point time and again, and that it why it is all the more important that parties act now, and act decisively and collectively, to get the institutions restored."

Analysts also believe the poll shows a resentment on all sides at the current instability. It is felt that the suspension of the Stormont institutions has been generally unpopular. Both Catholic and Protestant respondents cite "the instability of the institutions of government" for their unhappiness.

Police reform appears to have gone down well with some Catholics. They now place policing issues at number eight on their list of concerns, whereas it was previously their primary concern.

Alliance and the smaller parties have taken a hit in terms of overall support.

The Women's Coalition and Mr David Ervine's Progressive Unionists may have been adversely affected by suspension of the Assembly and the loss of a valuable and visible platform.

The collapse of trust in the agreement among the Progressive Unionists seems to endorse the decision of Mr Ervine and his colleague, Mr Billy Hutchinson, to quit the round-table talks hosted by the two governments.

However, the trend of popular support to drift from smaller parties could benefit the Ulster Unionists and the SDLP, who are facing challenges from the DUP and Sinn Féin respectively.

Declared support for the UUP, at 21 per cent, may prove encouraging for Mr Trimble. He said last night that "the gap between us and the DUP has widened".

"It is time for them to weigh up and see what is really happening at street level," he added.

The refusal of 17 per cent to say for which party they would vote is a record. DUP and Sinn Féin support is usually underestimated by polls so the gap between the SDLP and Sinn Féin on one hand, and the UUP and the DUP on the other, is probably closer than the poll reveals.

Pro-agreement parties and the governments claim that despite the upheaval and instability of the last five years, 75 per cent of respondents still want the Belfast Agreement to work, whereas 22 per cent do not.

The pollsters conducted 1,000 face-to-face interviews with voters during the first week of this month.