The Progressive Democrats and the Labour Party are likely to lose their bases in Limerick East at the next election, according to the latest TG4/MRBI poll on voter intentions in the five-seat constituency.
The results show Fianna Fáil increasing its seats from two to three on the back of a 42 per cent first-preference vote share for the Minister of State, Mr Willie O'Dea, more than double the quota. In the 1997 general election he topped the poll with 25 per cent of first preferences.
The Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan, is given a 19 per cent share, one percentage point less than his 1997 performance. His support is strongest, at 28 per cent, among the 50-64 age group but declines to 8 per cent among the 25-34 age group. The so-called Noonan factor is not as strong as party activists would like.
His running mate, Senator Mary Jackman, will have a battle on her hands for the last seat with the Labour TD, Ms Jan O'Sullivan. Both candidates have 8 per cent of the first-preference vote.
"Current indications are that the fifth seat lies between Jackman and O'Sullivan with the odds slightly favouring the Fine Gael candidate at the moment on Michael Noonan's transfers," MRBI stated.
Labour will be disappointed by the result. A left-wing candidate has traditionally been able to rely on an urban working-class vote to gain a seat.
In the PD camp it marks a low point for a party which had two seats in the constituency before the retirement of Mr Peadar Clohessy in 1997.
County councillor Tim O'Malley, the successor to the former party leader, Mr Des O'Malley, who is retiring from politics, polled just 4 per cent of the first-preference vote.
This is one percentage point less than one Independent candidate, city councillor Pat Kennedy, who recently left Fine Gael because he was not selected as a Dáil candidate.
Fianna Fáil has most reason to be pleased, and are "in line to win three seats", according to MRBI.
Mr O'Dea, whose support rises to 54 per cent among over 65s, will again bring in the incumbent TD, Mr Eddie Wade, who is on 4 per cent, along with the Dáil challenger, city councillor Peter Power, on 5 per cent.
Mr Power, a 36-year-old solicitor, is the youngest candidate among the main parties.
Among the Independent candidates are the Limerick Institute of Technology lecturer, Mr Denis Riordan, who gained national prominence when he made a constitutional challenge against the Government's decision to appoint the former Supreme Court judge, Mr Hugh O'Flaherty, to the European Central Bank.
Mr Riordan polled less than 1 per cent.
Also among the Independents is city councillor Michael Kelly, a self-confessed reformed criminal who now runs a security company.
He polled 2 per cent of the vote, but drew a 9 per cent share from the 18-24 age group.